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Jazz vs Celtics prediction NBA · Friday, December 18

Fri, Dec 18 · 7:30 PM ETTD Garden · KJZZ-TV, Jazz+

Utah Jazz

1-4 · away

Projected score

106-124

Boston Celtics

3-1 · home

7% win UTAHwin BOS 93%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin18.1

Projected total231

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Boston Celtics (3-1) host the Utah Jazz (1-4) on Friday, December 18 at 7:30 PM ET at TD Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 93% chance to win and projects a 106-124 score (Jazz – Celtics), about 231 total points. This season, the Celtics are 3-0 at home and the Jazz are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Celtics and 1-4 for the Jazz (current streaks: Celtics W3, Jazz L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 12% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz), Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz) and Devin Carter (Celtics). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Celtics start with a clear edge. The model projects Celtics 124 – 106 Jazz, a margin of about 18.1 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+6.6 vs -7.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Celtics

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BOS +6.6 / UTAH -7.0 per game

+13.6

Home-court advantageCeltics at home

+2.3

InjuriesBOS: 1 out, 0 questionable · UTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable

+2.2

Expected marginfor Celtics

+18.1

Scenarios

Celtics win by 10+

74%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

12%

Jazz win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

UTAHBOS

116.1

Points scored / game

116.1

124.3

Points allowed / game

108.3

45.4 %

Field goal %

46.5 %

33.9 %

3-point %

38.6 %

34.8

3-pointers attempted / game

41.5

76.6 %

Free throw %

76.0 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

44.3

26.8

Assists / game

27.8

5.0

Steals / game

9.0

6.4

Blocks / game

3.8

17.0

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Jazz

Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game

Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists

Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

UTAH

123-103W

120-119L

132-123L

110-105L

117-111 OT

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

UTAH 7% · BOS 93%

ESPN BPI

UTAH 21% · BOS 79%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

UTAH		BOS
1-4	Record	3-1
116.1	Points scored / game	116.1
124.3	Points allowed / game	108.3
-7.0	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
L3	Current streak	W3
1-4	Last 10 games	3-1
0-1 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
22-60 (-8.4)	Last season	56-26 (+7.7)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut

Trey Alexander GOut

Jusuf Nurkic COut

Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.