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76ers vs Bucks prediction NBA · Friday, January 1

Fri, Jan 1 · 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · MyMi, Bucks App

Philadelphia 76ers

4-1 · away

Projected score

114-112

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · home

58% win PHIwin MIL 42%

FavoritePHI

Projected margin2.5

Projected total226

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) host the Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) on Friday, January 1 at 8:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the 76ers a 58% chance to win and projects a 114-112 score (76ers – Bucks), about 226 total points. This season, the Bucks are 1-2 at home and the 76ers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bucks and 4-1 for the 76ers (current streaks: Bucks L1, 76ers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Bucks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jabari Walker (76ers), Tacko Fall (76ers), Dominick Barlow (76ers) and Ariel Hukporti (76ers). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Bucks 112 – 114 76ers, a margin of about 2.5 points in favor of the 76ers and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Bucks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others).

The overall strength gap (-6.4 vs +0.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The 76ers' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bucks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIL -6.4 / PHI +0.7 per game

-7.2

Home-court advantageBucks at home

+2.3

Back-to-backBucks played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesMIL: 0 out, 0 questionable · PHI: 4 out, 1 questionable

+4.0

Expected marginfor Bucks

-2.5

Scenarios

Bucks win by 10+

16%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

76ers win by 10+

27%

Stat comparison Current season

PHIMIL

114.4

Points scored / game

111.4

113.5

Points allowed / game

119.0

42.8 %

Field goal %

44.9 %

32.6 %

3-point %

34.0 %

35.0

3-pointers attempted / game

41.2

77.5 %

Free throw %

71.6 %

42.2

Rebounds / game

49.8

24.6

Assists / game

24.6

9.8

Steals / game

5.8

5.6

Blocks / game

4.0

12.6

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

76ers

Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game

LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists

Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHI

106-100W

114-106W

127-116L

106-93W

114-109

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

Head-to-head

PHI lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHI 58% · MIL 42%

ESPN BPI

PHI 78% · MIL 22%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PHI		MIL
4-1	Record	1-4
114.4	Points scored / game	111.4
113.5	Points allowed / game	119.0
+0.7	Adjusted margin / game	-6.4
W1	Current streak	L1
4-1	Last 10 games	1-4
2-0 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
45-37 (-0.2)	Last season	32-50 (-6.2)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report 76ers

Jabari Walker FOut

Tacko Fall COut

Dominick Barlow FOut

Ariel Hukporti COut

Jaylen Brown GDay-To-Day

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.