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Bucks vs 76ers prediction NBA · Saturday, November 21

Sat, Nov 21 · 1:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · MyMi, Bucks App

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · away

Projected score

111-117

Philadelphia 76ers

4-1 · home

33% win MILwin PHI 67%

FavoritePHI

Projected margin5.5

Projected total228

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) host the Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) on Saturday, November 21 at 1:00 PM ET at Xfinity Mobile Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the 76ers a 67% chance to win and projects a 111-117 score (Bucks – 76ers), about 228 total points. This season, the 76ers are 2-1 at home and the Bucks are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the 76ers and 1-4 for the Bucks (current streaks: 76ers W1, Bucks L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jabari Walker (76ers), Tacko Fall (76ers), Dominick Barlow (76ers) and Ariel Hukporti (76ers). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the 76ers, but the Bucks have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects 76ers 117 – 111 Bucks, a margin of about 5.5 points in favor of the 76ers and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others).

The overall strength gap (+0.7 vs -6.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The 76ers' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge 76ers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHI +0.7 / MIL -6.4 per game

+7.2

Home-court advantage76ers at home

+2.3

InjuriesPHI: 4 out, 1 questionable · MIL: 0 out, 0 questionable

-4.0

Expected marginfor 76ers

+5.5

Scenarios

76ers win by 10+

36%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Bucks win by 10+

11%

Stat comparison Current season

MILPHI

111.4

Points scored / game

114.4

119.0

Points allowed / game

113.5

44.9 %

Field goal %

42.8 %

34.0 %

3-point %

32.6 %

41.2

3-pointers attempted / game

35.0

71.6 %

Free throw %

77.5 %

49.8

Rebounds / game

42.2

24.6

Assists / game

24.6

5.8

Steals / game

9.8

4.0

Blocks / game

5.6

16.8

Turnovers / game

12.6

Players to watch

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

76ers

Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game

LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists

Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

PHI

106-100W

114-106W

127-116L

106-93W

114-109

Head-to-head

PHI lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIL 33% · PHI 67%

ESPN BPI

MIL 15% · PHI 85%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIL		PHI
1-4	Record	4-1
111.4	Points scored / game	114.4
119.0	Points allowed / game	113.5
-6.4	Adjusted margin / game	+0.7
L1	Current streak	W1
1-4	Last 10 games	4-1
0-2 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
32-50 (-6.2)	Last season	45-37 (-0.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Injury report 76ers

Jabari Walker FOut

Tacko Fall COut

Dominick Barlow FOut

Ariel Hukporti COut

Jaylen Brown GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.