Clippers vs Raptors prediction NBA · Friday, January 1
At a glance
The Toronto Raptors (3-1) host the LA Clippers (1-3) on Friday, January 1 at 7:30 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 81% chance to win and projects a 104-116 score (Clippers – Raptors), about 220 total points. This season, the Raptors are 2-0 at home and the Clippers are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Raptors and 1-3 for the Clippers (current streaks: Raptors W1, Clippers L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 21% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Clippers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Yanic Konan Niederhauser (Clippers), Max Strus (Clippers), Brandon Ingram (Clippers), Bradley Beal (Clippers), Jordan Miller (Clippers) and Kawhi Leonard (Raptors)…. Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Raptors dominate this matchup. The model projects Raptors 116 – 104 Clippers, a margin of about 11.2 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 220 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Clippers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. The Clippers will be without Yanic Konan Niederhauser or Max Strus (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+5.0 vs +0.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Clippers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Raptors' offense (115.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
LACTOR
Players to watch
Clippers
Darius GarlandG · #1021.5pts / gameDarius GarlandG · #106.5assists
Rui HachimuraF · #286.0reboundsRaptors
RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game
Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists
Scottie BarnesF · #47.2reboundsRecent form
LAC
122-110W
121-96L
125-117L
108-101L103-87TOR
129-125W
135-92W
112-102L
117-94W
129-99
TOR
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| LAC | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| 112.0 | Points scored / game | 115.4 |
| 111.5 | Points allowed / game | 109.5 |
| +0.4 | Adjusted margin / game | +5.0 |
| L3 | Current streak | W1 |
| 1-3 | Last 10 games | 3-1 |
| 0-2 road | Home / road record | 2-0 home |
| 42-40 (+1.1) | Last season | 46-36 (+2.8) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Clippers
Injury report Raptors
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.