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Heat vs Thunder prediction NBA · Thursday, December 31

Thu, Dec 31 · 8:00 PM ETPaycom Center · KSBI, Thunder App

Miami Heat

1-4 · away

Projected score

111-117

Oklahoma City Thunder

4-1 · home

31% win MIAwin OKC 69%

FavoriteOKC

Projected margin6.3

Projected total228

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) host the Miami Heat (1-4) on Thursday, December 31 at 8:00 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 69% chance to win and projects a 111-117 score (Heat – Thunder), about 228 total points. This season, the Thunder are 3-0 at home and the Heat are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Thunder and 1-4 for the Heat (current streaks: Thunder L1, Heat W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder), Nikola Topic (Thunder) and Cason Wallace (Thunder). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Thunder, but the Heat have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Thunder 117 – 111 Heat, a margin of about 6.3 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others).

The overall strength gap (+7.6 vs -0.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Thunder

Team strength (adjusted point differential)OKC +7.6 / MIA -0.6 per game

+8.1

Home-court advantageThunder at home

+2.3

InjuriesOKC: 5 out, 1 questionable · MIA: 0 out, 1 questionable

-4.2

Expected marginfor Thunder

+6.3

Scenarios

Thunder win by 10+

38%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Heat win by 10+

10%

Stat comparison Current season

MIAOKC

118.6

Points scored / game

115.8

119.2

Points allowed / game

106.9

45.3 %

Field goal %

44.0 %

31.7 %

3-point %

30.9 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

32.4

71.7 %

Free throw %

86.4 %

42.8

Rebounds / game

46.0

27.0

Assists / game

22.0

8.4

Steals / game

8.4

5.4

Blocks / game

6.8

14.2

Turnovers / game

13.6

Players to watch

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game

Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists

Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

OKC

116-104W

96-84W

108-101W

125-114L

120-96

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIA 31% · OKC 69%

ESPN BPI

MIA 25% · OKC 76%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIA		OKC
1-4	Record	4-1
118.6	Points scored / game	115.8
119.2	Points allowed / game	106.9
-0.6	Adjusted margin / game	+7.6
W1	Current streak	L1
1-4	Last 10 games	4-1
1-1 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
43-39 (+2.3)	Last season	64-18 (+11.1)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Injury report Thunder

Jalen Williams GOut

Alex Caruso GOut

Thomas Sorber COut

Nikola Topic GOut

Cason Wallace GOut

Chet Holmgren CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.