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Thunder vs Heat prediction NBA · Sunday, November 22

Sun, Nov 22 · 6:00 PM ETKaseya Center · KSBI, Thunder App

Oklahoma City Thunder

4-1 · away

Projected score

115-113

Miami Heat

1-4 · home

55% win OKCwin MIA 45%

FavoriteOKC

Projected margin1.7

Projected total228

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Miami Heat (1-4) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) on Sunday, November 22 at 6:00 PM ET at Kaseya Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 55% chance to win and projects a 115-113 score (Thunder – Heat), about 228 total points. This season, the Heat are 0-3 at home and the Thunder are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Heat and 4-1 for the Thunder (current streaks: Heat W1, Thunder L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder), Nikola Topic (Thunder) and Cason Wallace (Thunder). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Heat 113 – 115 Thunder, a margin of about 1.7 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others).

The overall strength gap (-0.6 vs +7.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Heat

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIA -0.6 / OKC +7.6 per game

-8.1

Home-court advantageHeat at home

+2.3

InjuriesMIA: 0 out, 1 questionable · OKC: 5 out, 1 questionable

+4.2

Expected marginfor Heat

-1.7

Scenarios

Heat win by 10+

17%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Thunder win by 10+

25%

Stat comparison Current season

OKCMIA

115.8

Points scored / game

118.6

106.9

Points allowed / game

119.2

44.0 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

30.9 %

3-point %

31.7 %

32.4

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

86.4 %

Free throw %

71.7 %

46.0

Rebounds / game

42.8

22.0

Assists / game

27.0

8.4

Steals / game

8.4

6.8

Blocks / game

5.4

13.6

Turnovers / game

14.2

Players to watch

Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game

Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists

Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6rebounds

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

OKC

116-104W

96-84W

108-101W

125-114L

120-96

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

OKC 55% · MIA 45%

ESPN BPI

OKC 65% · MIA 36%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

OKC		MIA
4-1	Record	1-4
115.8	Points scored / game	118.6
106.9	Points allowed / game	119.2
+7.6	Adjusted margin / game	-0.6
L1	Current streak	W1
4-1	Last 10 games	1-4
1-1 road	Home / road record	0-3 home
64-18 (+11.1)	Last season	43-39 (+2.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Thunder

Jalen Williams GOut

Alex Caruso GOut

Thomas Sorber COut

Nikola Topic GOut

Cason Wallace GOut

Chet Holmgren CDay-To-Day

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.