Lakers vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Thursday, December 31
At a glance
The New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) host the Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) on Thursday, December 31 at 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Lakers a 69% chance to win and projects a 119-113 score (Lakers – Pelicans), about 231 total points. This season, the Pelicans are 0-2 at home and the Lakers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Pelicans and 4-1 for the Lakers (current streaks: Pelicans L4, Lakers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pelicans played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Cameron Carr (Lakers), Adou Thiero (Lakers) and Yves Missi (Pelicans). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Lakers are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Pelicans 113 – 119 Lakers, a margin of about 6.3 points in favor of the Lakers and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pelicans played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Pelicans will be without Yves Missi. The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-4.1 vs +3.5 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Lakers' defense allows clearly fewer points (114.3 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
LALNO
Players to watch
Lakers
Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / gameLuka DoncicG · #778.2assists
Walker KesslerC · #148.2reboundsPelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2reboundsRecent form
LAL
127-105W
125-117W
132-123L
136-129W103-87NO
123-120L120-119L
141-135 OTL104-91W
132-120Head-to-head
3 meetings scheduled this season.
LAL
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| LAL | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 0-4 |
| 118.4 | Points scored / game | 115.7 |
| 114.3 | Points allowed / game | 120.5 |
| +3.5 | Adjusted margin / game | -4.1 |
| W1 | Current streak | L4 |
| 4-1 | Last 10 games | 0-4 |
| 2-0 road | Home / road record | 0-2 home |
| 53-29 (+1.8) | Last season | 26-56 (-4.5) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Lakers
Injury report Pelicans
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.