Pelicans vs Lakers prediction NBA · Monday, December 14
At a glance
The Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) host the New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) on Monday, December 14 at 10:00 PM ET at crypto.com Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Lakers a 82% chance to win and projects a 110-121 score (Pelicans – Lakers), about 231 total points. This season, the Lakers are 2-1 at home and the Pelicans are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Lakers and 0-4 for the Pelicans (current streaks: Lakers W1, Pelicans L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 21% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pelicans played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Dejounte Murray (Pelicans), Jordan Poole (Pelicans), Yves Missi (Pelicans), Cameron Carr (Lakers) and Adou Thiero (Lakers). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Lakers start with a clear edge. The model projects Lakers 121 – 110 Pelicans, a margin of about 11.7 points in favor of the Lakers and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pelicans played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero. The Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray or Jordan Poole (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+3.5 vs -4.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Lakers' defense allows clearly fewer points (114.3 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
NOLAL
Players to watch
Pelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2reboundsLakers
Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / gameLuka DoncicG · #778.2assists
Walker KesslerC · #148.2reboundsRecent form
NO
107-106L
123-120L
120-119L
141-135 OTL104-91LAL
127-105W
125-117W132-123L
136-129W103-87Head-to-head
3 meetings scheduled this season.
LAL
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| NO | LAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| 115.7 | Points scored / game | 118.4 |
| 120.5 | Points allowed / game | 114.3 |
| -4.1 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.5 |
| L4 | Current streak | W1 |
| 0-4 | Last 10 games | 4-1 |
| 0-2 road | Home / road record | 2-1 home |
| 26-56 (-4.5) | Last season | 53-29 (+1.8) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Pelicans
Injury report Lakers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.