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Knicks vs Jazz prediction NBA · Wednesday, December 30

Wed, Dec 30 · 9:00 PM ETDelta Center · KJZZ-TV, Jazz+

New York Knicks

2-3 · away

Projected score

121-110

Utah Jazz

1-4 · home

80% win NYwin UTAH 20%

FavoriteNY

Projected margin10.7

Projected total231

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Utah Jazz (1-4) host the New York Knicks (2-3) on Wednesday, December 30 at 9:00 PM ET at Delta Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Knicks a 80% chance to win and projects a 121-110 score (Knicks – Jazz), about 231 total points. This season, the Jazz are 1-3 at home and the Knicks are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Jazz and 2-3 for the Knicks (current streaks: Jazz L3, Knicks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 22% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jose Alvarado (Knicks), Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz) and Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Knicks start with a clear edge. The model projects Jazz 110 – 121 Knicks, a margin of about 10.7 points in favor of the Knicks and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other). The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado.

The overall strength gap (-7.0 vs +3.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Knicks' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Jazz

Team strength (adjusted point differential)UTAH -7.0 / NY +3.8 per game

-10.9

Home-court advantageJazz at home

+2.3

InjuriesUTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable · NY: 1 out, 0 questionable

-2.2

Expected marginfor Jazz

-10.7

Scenarios

Jazz win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

22%

Knicks win by 10+

52%

Stat comparison Current season

NYUTAH

114.5

Points scored / game

116.1

110.0

Points allowed / game

124.3

42.2 %

Field goal %

45.4 %

35.9 %

3-point %

33.9 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

34.8

75.8 %

Free throw %

76.6 %

48.2

Rebounds / game

46.8

26.8

Assists / game

26.8

7.2

Steals / game

5.0

4.4

Blocks / game

6.4

14.8

Turnovers / game

17.0

Players to watch

Knicks

Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game

Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists

Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds

Jazz

Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game

Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists

Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

106-100L

107-103L

111-102W

111-97W

133-127

UTAH

123-103W

120-119L

132-123L

110-105L

117-111 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

NY 80% · UTAH 20%

ESPN BPI

NY 68% · UTAH 32%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

NY		UTAH
2-3	Record	1-4
114.5	Points scored / game	116.1
110.0	Points allowed / game	124.3
+3.8	Adjusted margin / game	-7.0
W2	Current streak	L3
2-3	Last 10 games	1-4
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-3 home
53-29 (+6.3)	Last season	22-60 (-8.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut

Trey Alexander GOut

Jusuf Nurkic COut

Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.