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Jazz vs Knicks prediction NBA · Wednesday, December 23

Wed, Dec 23 · 7:30 PM ETMadison Square Garden · KJZZ-TV, Jazz+

Utah Jazz

1-4 · away

Projected score

108-123

New York Knicks

2-3 · home

11% win UTAHwin NY 89%

FavoriteNY

Projected margin15.3

Projected total231

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The New York Knicks (2-3) host the Utah Jazz (1-4) on Wednesday, December 23 at 7:30 PM ET at Madison Square Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Knicks a 89% chance to win and projects a 108-123 score (Jazz – Knicks), about 231 total points. This season, the Knicks are 1-2 at home and the Jazz are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Knicks and 1-4 for the Jazz (current streaks: Knicks W2, Jazz L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 15% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz), Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz) and Jose Alvarado (Knicks). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Knicks start with a clear edge. The model projects Knicks 123 – 108 Jazz, a margin of about 15.3 points in favor of the Knicks and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (+3.8 vs -7.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Knicks' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Knicks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)NY +3.8 / UTAH -7.0 per game

+10.9

Home-court advantageKnicks at home

+2.3

InjuriesNY: 1 out, 0 questionable · UTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable

+2.2

Expected marginfor Knicks

+15.3

Scenarios

Knicks win by 10+

66%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

15%

Jazz win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

UTAHNY

116.1

Points scored / game

114.5

124.3

Points allowed / game

110.0

45.4 %

Field goal %

42.2 %

33.9 %

3-point %

35.9 %

34.8

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

76.6 %

Free throw %

75.8 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

48.2

26.8

Assists / game

26.8

5.0

Steals / game

7.2

6.4

Blocks / game

4.4

17.0

Turnovers / game

14.8

Players to watch

Jazz

Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game

Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists

Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Knicks

Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game

Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists

Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

UTAH

123-103W

120-119L

132-123L

110-105L

117-111 OT

106-100L

107-103L

111-102W

111-97W

133-127

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

UTAH 11% · NY 89%

ESPN BPI

UTAH 24% · NY 76%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

UTAH		NY
1-4	Record	2-3
116.1	Points scored / game	114.5
124.3	Points allowed / game	110.0
-7.0	Adjusted margin / game	+3.8
L3	Current streak	W2
1-4	Last 10 games	2-3
0-1 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
22-60 (-8.4)	Last season	53-29 (+6.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut

Trey Alexander GOut

Jusuf Nurkic COut

Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.