Pelicans vs Pistons prediction NBA · Wednesday, December 30
At a glance
The Detroit Pistons (4-1) host the New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) on Wednesday, December 30 at 7:00 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 87% chance to win and projects a 107-121 score (Pelicans – Pistons), about 228 total points. This season, the Pistons are 2-0 at home and the Pelicans are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Pistons and 0-4 for the Pelicans (current streaks: Pistons W1, Pelicans L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 17% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Dejounte Murray (Pelicans), Jordan Poole (Pelicans), Yves Missi (Pelicans) and Jalen Duren (Pistons). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Pistons start with a clear edge. The model projects Pistons 121 – 107 Pelicans, a margin of about 14.3 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren. The Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray or Jordan Poole (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+6.5 vs -4.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
NODET
Players to watch
Pelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2reboundsPistons
Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / gameCade CunninghamG · #27.8assists
Paul ReedF · #77.6reboundsRecent form
NO
107-106L
123-120L
120-119L
141-135 OTL104-91DET
121-113W
128-111W
106-93L
111-97W
97-89
DET
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| NO | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| 115.7 | Points scored / game | 115.4 |
| 120.5 | Points allowed / game | 107.8 |
| -4.1 | Adjusted margin / game | +6.5 |
| L4 | Current streak | W1 |
| 0-4 | Last 10 games | 4-1 |
| 0-2 road | Home / road record | 2-0 home |
| 26-56 (-4.5) | Last season | 60-22 (+8.2) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Pelicans
Injury report Pistons
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.