Pistons vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Wednesday, November 18
At a glance
The New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) host the Detroit Pistons (4-1) on Wednesday, November 18 at 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 74% chance to win and projects a 117-109 score (Pistons – Pelicans), about 227 total points. This season, the Pelicans are 0-2 at home and the Pistons are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Pelicans and 4-1 for the Pistons (current streaks: Pelicans L4, Pistons W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 25% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pistons played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jalen Duren (Pistons), Dejounte Murray (Pelicans), Jordan Poole (Pelicans) and Yves Missi (Pelicans). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Pistons dominate this matchup. The model projects Pelicans 109 – 117 Pistons, a margin of about 8.1 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pistons played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray or Jordan Poole (and 1 other). The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-4.1 vs +6.5 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
DETNO
Players to watch
Pistons
Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / gameCade CunninghamG · #27.8assists
Paul ReedF · #77.6reboundsPelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2reboundsRecent form
DET
121-113W
128-111W
106-93L
111-97W
97-89NO
107-106L
123-120L
120-119L
141-135 OTL104-91
DET
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| DET | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 0-4 |
| 115.4 | Points scored / game | 115.7 |
| 107.8 | Points allowed / game | 120.5 |
| +6.5 | Adjusted margin / game | -4.1 |
| W1 | Current streak | L4 |
| 4-1 | Last 10 games | 0-4 |
| 2-1 road | Home / road record | 0-2 home |
| 60-22 (+8.2) | Last season | 26-56 (-4.5) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Pistons
Injury report Pelicans
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.