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Bucks vs Thunder prediction NBA · Tuesday, December 29

Tue, Dec 29 · 8:00 PM ETPaycom Center · KSBI, Thunder App, MyMi, Bucks App
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks
1-4 · away
Projected score
106-118
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder
4-1 · home
17% win MILwin OKC 83%
FavoriteOKC
Projected margin11.8
Projected total225
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) host the Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) on Tuesday, December 29 at 8:00 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 83% chance to win and projects a 106-118 score (Bucks – Thunder), about 225 total points. This season, the Thunder are 3-0 at home and the Bucks are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Thunder and 1-4 for the Bucks (current streaks: Thunder L1, Bucks L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 20% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder), Nikola Topic (Thunder) and Cason Wallace (Thunder). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Thunder start with a clear edge. The model projects Thunder 118 – 106 Bucks, a margin of about 11.8 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others).

  • The overall strength gap (+7.6 vs -6.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Thunder's offense (115.8 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Thunder
Team strength (adjusted point differential)OKC +7.6 / MIL -6.4 per game
+14.0
Home-court advantageThunder at home
+2.3
InjuriesOKC: 5 out, 1 questionable · MIL: 0 out, 0 questionable
-4.5
Expected marginfor Thunder
+11.8

Scenarios

Thunder win by 10+
56%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
20%
Bucks win by 10+
4%

Stat comparison Current season

MILOKC
111.4
Points scored / game
115.8
119.0
Points allowed / game
106.9
44.9 %
Field goal %
44.0 %
34.0 %
3-point %
30.9 %
41.2
3-pointers attempted / game
32.4
71.6 %
Free throw %
86.4 %
49.8
Rebounds / game
46.0
24.6
Assists / game
22.0
5.8
Steals / game
8.4
4.0
Blocks / game
6.8
16.8
Turnovers / game
13.6

Players to watch

Bucks
Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game
Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists
Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
MIL
LWSH128-116LCHI132-125LPHI127-116WIND110-102LHOU132-100
OKC
WSA116-104WDEN96-84WLAC108-101WPHX125-114LDAL120-96

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 28OKCupcomingMILDec 29MILthis gameOKC

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
MIL 17% · OKC 83%
ESPN BPI
MIL 11% · OKC 89%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MILOKC
1-4Record4-1
111.4Points scored / game115.8
119.0Points allowed / game106.9
-6.4Adjusted margin / game+7.6
L1Current streakL1
1-4Last 10 games4-1
0-2 roadHome / road record3-0 home
32-50 (-6.2)Last season64-18 (+11.1)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Milwaukee Bucks Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Oklahoma City Thunder Injury report Thunder

Jalen Williams GOut
Alex Caruso GOut
Thomas Sorber COut
Nikola Topic GOut
Cason Wallace GOut
Chet Holmgren CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.