Thunder vs Bucks prediction NBA · Saturday, November 28
At a glance
The Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) on Saturday, November 28 at 8:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 76% chance to win and projects a 116-107 score (Thunder – Bucks), about 223 total points. This season, the Bucks are 1-2 at home and the Thunder are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bucks and 4-1 for the Thunder (current streaks: Bucks L1, Thunder L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 25% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Bucks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder), Nikola Topic (Thunder) and Cason Wallace (Thunder). Prediction confidence: high.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Thunder dominate this matchup. The model projects Bucks 107 – 116 Thunder, a margin of about 8.8 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 223 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Bucks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others).
- The overall strength gap (-6.4 vs +7.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's offense (115.8 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
OKCMIL
Players to watch
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6reboundsBucks
Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / gameTyler HerroG · #114.6assists
Kel'el WareC · #98.4reboundsRecent form
OKC
116-104W
96-84W
108-101W
125-114L
120-96MIL
128-116L
132-125L
127-116W
110-102L
132-100
OKC
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| OKC | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| 115.8 | Points scored / game | 111.4 |
| 106.9 | Points allowed / game | 119.0 |
| +7.6 | Adjusted margin / game | -6.4 |
| L1 | Current streak | L1 |
| 4-1 | Last 10 games | 1-4 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 1-2 home |
| 64-18 (+11.1) | Last season | 32-50 (-6.2) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Thunder
Injury report Bucks
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.