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Magic vs Hornets prediction NBA · Tuesday, December 29

Tue, Dec 29 · 7:00 PM ETSpectrum Center

Orlando Magic

1-3 · away

Projected score

108-114

Charlotte Hornets

3-2 · home

31% win ORLwin CHA 69%

FavoriteCHA

Projected margin6.2

Projected total222

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Charlotte Hornets (3-2) host the Orlando Magic (1-3) on Tuesday, December 29 at 7:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hornets a 69% chance to win and projects a 108-114 score (Magic – Hornets), about 222 total points. This season, the Hornets are 2-1 at home and the Magic are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Hornets and 1-3 for the Magic (current streaks: Hornets L1, Magic L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jonathan Isaac (Magic), Jalen Suggs (Magic), Paolo Banchero (Magic), Noah Penda (Magic), Izaiyah Nelson (Magic) and Kon Knueppel (Hornets)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Hornets are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Hornets 114 – 108 Magic, a margin of about 6.2 points in favor of the Hornets and a total around 222 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others). The Magic will be without Jonathan Isaac or Jalen Suggs (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Magic need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hornets' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hornets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHA +1.1 / ORL -2.3 per game

+3.3

Home-court advantageHornets at home

+2.3

InjuriesCHA: 4 out, 1 questionable · ORL: 5 out, 0 questionable

+0.5

Expected marginfor Hornets

+6.2

Scenarios

Hornets win by 10+

38%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Magic win by 10+

10%

Stat comparison Current season

ORLCHA

113.6

Points scored / game

111.6

116.2

Points allowed / game

110.3

44.2 %

Field goal %

41.7 %

31.4 %

3-point %

30.6 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

43.2

75.0 %

Free throw %

85.2 %

41.3

Rebounds / game

47.4

26.0

Assists / game

20.6

7.8

Steals / game

6.8

4.5

Blocks / game

5.2

17.8

Turnovers / game

19.0

Players to watch

Magic

Franz WagnerF · #2219.5pts / game

Franz WagnerF · #226.0assists

Wendell Carter Jr.C · #349.0rebounds

Hornets

Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game

Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists

Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

ORL

136-115L

132-125L

115-93W

111-102L

129-99

CHA

110-103L

128-81W

115-110W

110-103L

97-89

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

ORL 31% · CHA 69%

ESPN BPI

ORL 47% · CHA 53%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ORL		CHA
1-3	Record	3-2
113.6	Points scored / game	111.6
116.2	Points allowed / game	110.3
-2.3	Adjusted margin / game	+1.1
L1	Current streak	L1
1-3	Last 10 games	3-2
1-1 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
45-37 (+0.6)	Last season	44-38 (+4.8)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Magic

Jonathan Isaac FOut

Jalen Suggs GOut

Paolo Banchero FOut

Noah Penda FOut

Izaiyah Nelson FOut

Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut

Coby White GOut

Grant Williams FOut

Kylan Boswell GOut

Dennis Schroder GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.