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Hornets vs Magic prediction NBA · Wednesday, December 23

Wed, Dec 23 · 7:00 PM ETKia Center

Charlotte Hornets

3-2 · away

Projected score

112-110

Orlando Magic

1-3 · home

55% win CHAwin ORL 45%

FavoriteCHA

Projected margin1.6

Projected total222

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Orlando Magic (1-3) host the Charlotte Hornets (3-2) on Wednesday, December 23 at 7:00 PM ET at Kia Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hornets a 55% chance to win and projects a 112-110 score (Hornets – Magic), about 222 total points. This season, the Magic are 0-2 at home and the Hornets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-3 for the Magic and 3-2 for the Hornets (current streaks: Magic L1, Hornets L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kon Knueppel (Hornets), Coby White (Hornets), Grant Williams (Hornets), Kylan Boswell (Hornets), Jonathan Isaac (Magic) and Jalen Suggs (Magic)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Magic 110 – 112 Hornets, a margin of about 1.6 points in favor of the Hornets and a total around 222 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Magic will be without Jonathan Isaac or Jalen Suggs (and 3 others). The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Magic need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hornets' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Magic

Team strength (adjusted point differential)ORL -2.3 / CHA +1.1 per game

-3.3

Home-court advantageMagic at home

+2.3

InjuriesORL: 5 out, 0 questionable · CHA: 4 out, 1 questionable

-0.5

Expected marginfor Magic

-1.6

Scenarios

Magic win by 10+

18%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Hornets win by 10+

25%

Stat comparison Current season

CHAORL

111.6

Points scored / game

113.6

110.3

Points allowed / game

116.2

41.7 %

Field goal %

44.2 %

30.6 %

3-point %

31.4 %

43.2

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

85.2 %

Free throw %

75.0 %

47.4

Rebounds / game

41.3

20.6

Assists / game

26.0

6.8

Steals / game

7.8

5.2

Blocks / game

4.5

19.0

Turnovers / game

17.8

Players to watch

Hornets

Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game

Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists

Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds

Magic

Franz WagnerF · #2219.5pts / game

Franz WagnerF · #226.0assists

Wendell Carter Jr.C · #349.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CHA

110-103L

128-81W

115-110W

110-103L

97-89

ORL

136-115L

132-125L

115-93W

111-102L

129-99

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CHA 55% · ORL 45%

ESPN BPI

CHA 43% · ORL 57%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

CHA		ORL
3-2	Record	1-3
111.6	Points scored / game	113.6
110.3	Points allowed / game	116.2
+1.1	Adjusted margin / game	-2.3
L1	Current streak	L1
3-2	Last 10 games	1-3
1-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
44-38 (+4.8)	Last season	45-37 (+0.6)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut

Coby White GOut

Grant Williams FOut

Kylan Boswell GOut

Dennis Schroder GDay-To-Day

Injury report Magic

Jonathan Isaac FOut

Jalen Suggs GOut

Paolo Banchero FOut

Noah Penda FOut

Izaiyah Nelson FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.