Pacers vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Sunday, December 27
At a glance
The Denver Nuggets (2-2) host the Indiana Pacers (2-3) on Sunday, December 27 at 8:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nuggets a 83% chance to win and projects a 108-121 score (Pacers – Nuggets), about 229 total points. This season, the Nuggets are 1-1 at home and the Pacers are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-2 for the Nuggets and 2-3 for the Pacers (current streaks: Nuggets W1, Pacers L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 20% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pacers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers), Johnny Furphy (Pacers) and Alpha Diallo (Nuggets)…. Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Nuggets dominate this matchup. The model projects Nuggets 121 – 108 Pacers, a margin of about 12.1 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Nuggets will be without Alpha Diallo or Cameron Johnson (and 2 others). The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+2.6 vs -4.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
INDDEN
Players to watch
Pacers
Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game
Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists
Ivica ZubacC · #409.0reboundsNuggets
Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game
Nikola JokicC · #159.0assistsNikola JokicC · #1510.5reboundsRecent form
IND
123-120L
121-105W
136-109L
110-102L
114-109DEN
121-106L
96-84W141-135 OTL
134-114W104-91
DEN
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| IND | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 2-2 |
| 113.2 | Points scored / game | 119.2 |
| 118.8 | Points allowed / game | 116.2 |
| -4.7 | Adjusted margin / game | +2.6 |
| L2 | Current streak | W1 |
| 2-3 | Last 10 games | 2-2 |
| 2-1 road | Home / road record | 1-1 home |
| 19-63 (-8.0) | Last season | 54-28 (+5.2) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Pacers
Injury report Nuggets
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.