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Nuggets vs Pacers prediction NBA · Saturday, November 7

Sat, Nov 7 · 5:00 PM ETArena CDMX · NBA TV, DAZN IND

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · away

Projected score

118-112

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · home

68% win DENwin IND 32%

FavoriteDEN

Projected margin5.9

Projected total230

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Indiana Pacers (2-3) host the Denver Nuggets (2-2) on Saturday, November 7 at 5:00 PM ET at Arena CDMX in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nuggets a 68% chance to win and projects a 118-112 score (Nuggets – Pacers), about 230 total points. This season, the Pacers are 0-2 at home and the Nuggets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Pacers and 2-2 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Pacers L2, Nuggets W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Julian Strawther (Nuggets), Ivica Zubac (Pacers) and T.J. McConnell (Pacers)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Nuggets are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Pacers 112 – 118 Nuggets, a margin of about 5.9 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others). The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-4.7 vs +2.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pacers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)IND -4.7 / DEN +2.6 per game

-7.3

Home-court advantagePacers at home

+2.3

InjuriesIND: 5 out, 2 questionable · DEN: 4 out, 0 questionable

-0.9

Expected marginfor Pacers

-5.9

Scenarios

Pacers win by 10+

10%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Nuggets win by 10+

37%

Stat comparison Current season

DENIND

119.2

Points scored / game

113.2

116.2

Points allowed / game

118.8

45.8 %

Field goal %

47.1 %

32.8 %

3-point %

31.2 %

34.3

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

79.6 %

Free throw %

72.7 %

44.5

Rebounds / game

44.0

26.0

Assists / game

29.4

10.0

Steals / game

6.4

4.8

Blocks / game

4.8

15.3

Turnovers / game

14.8

Players to watch

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DEN 68% · IND 32%

ESPN BPI

DEN 72% · IND 28%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DEN		IND
2-2	Record	2-3
119.2	Points scored / game	113.2
116.2	Points allowed / game	118.8
+2.6	Adjusted margin / game	-4.7
W1	Current streak	L2
2-2	Last 10 games	2-3
1-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
54-28 (+5.2)	Last season	19-63 (-8.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Nuggets

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Alpha Diallo FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Injury report Pacers

Ivica Zubac COut

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Andrew Nembhard GDay-To-Day

Aaron Nesmith GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.