Trail Blazers vs Pistons prediction NBA · Sunday, December 27
At a glance
The Detroit Pistons (4-1) host the Portland Trail Blazers (3-0) on Sunday, December 27 at 7:00 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 72% chance to win and projects a 109-116 score (Trail Blazers – Pistons), about 225 total points. This season, the Pistons are 2-0 at home and the Trail Blazers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Pistons and 3-0 for the Trail Blazers (current streaks: Pistons W1, Trail Blazers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pistons and the Trail Blazers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Robert Williams III (Trail Blazers), Chris Youngblood (Trail Blazers), Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers) and Jalen Duren (Pistons). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
Slight edge to the Pistons, but the Trail Blazers have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Pistons 116 – 109 Trail Blazers, a margin of about 7.3 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pistons and the Trail Blazers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren. The Trail Blazers will be without Robert Williams III or Chris Youngblood (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Trail Blazers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
PORDET
Players to watch
Trail Blazers
Deni AvdijaF · #822.3pts / game
Ja MorantG · #16.3assists
Donovan ClinganC · #239.3reboundsPistons
Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / gameCade CunninghamG · #27.8assists
Paul ReedF · #77.6reboundsRecent form
POR
110-98L
128-118W
124-83W128-120W
136-129DET
121-113W
128-111W
106-93L
111-97W
97-89
POR
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| POR | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-0 | Record | 4-1 |
| 118.2 | Points scored / game | 115.4 |
| 114.7 | Points allowed / game | 107.8 |
| +3.0 | Adjusted margin / game | +6.5 |
| W3 | Current streak | W1 |
| 3-0 | Last 10 games | 4-1 |
| 2-0 road | Home / road record | 2-0 home |
| 42-40 (-0.3) | Last season | 60-22 (+8.2) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Trail Blazers
Injury report Pistons
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.