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Raptors vs Magic prediction NBA · Saturday, December 26

Sat, Dec 26 · 7:00 PM ETKia Center

Toronto Raptors

3-1 · away

Projected score

116-109

Orlando Magic

1-3 · home

73% win TORwin ORL 27%

FavoriteTOR

Projected margin7.6

Projected total225

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Orlando Magic (1-3) host the Toronto Raptors (3-1) on Saturday, December 26 at 7:00 PM ET at Kia Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 73% chance to win and projects a 116-109 score (Raptors – Magic), about 225 total points. This season, the Magic are 0-2 at home and the Raptors are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-3 for the Magic and 3-1 for the Raptors (current streaks: Magic L1, Raptors W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kawhi Leonard (Raptors), Nate Bittle (Raptors), Jonathan Isaac (Magic), Jalen Suggs (Magic), Paolo Banchero (Magic) and Noah Penda (Magic)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Raptors dominate this matchup. The model projects Magic 109 – 116 Raptors, a margin of about 7.6 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Magic will be without Jonathan Isaac or Jalen Suggs (and 3 others). The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-2.3 vs +5.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Magic need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Magic

Team strength (adjusted point differential)ORL -2.3 / TOR +5.0 per game

-7.2

Home-court advantageMagic at home

+2.3

InjuriesORL: 5 out, 0 questionable · TOR: 2 out, 0 questionable

-2.7

Expected marginfor Magic

-7.6

Scenarios

Magic win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

26%

Raptors win by 10+

43%

Stat comparison Current season

TORORL

115.4

Points scored / game

113.6

109.5

Points allowed / game

116.2

44.2 %

Field goal %

44.2 %

30.4 %

3-point %

31.4 %

34.5

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

79.0 %

Free throw %

75.0 %

45.8

Rebounds / game

41.3

27.3

Assists / game

26.0

14.3

Steals / game

7.8

5.5

Blocks / game

4.5

14.0

Turnovers / game

17.8

Players to watch

Raptors

RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game

Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists

Scottie BarnesF · #47.2rebounds

Magic

Franz WagnerF · #2219.5pts / game

Franz WagnerF · #226.0assists

Wendell Carter Jr.C · #349.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

TOR

129-125W

135-92W

112-102L

117-94W

129-99

ORL

136-115L

132-125L

115-93W

111-102L

129-99

Head-to-head

TOR lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

TOR 73% · ORL 27%

ESPN BPI

TOR 63% · ORL 37%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

TOR		ORL
3-1	Record	1-3
115.4	Points scored / game	113.6
109.5	Points allowed / game	116.2
+5.0	Adjusted margin / game	-2.3
W1	Current streak	L1
3-1	Last 10 games	1-3
1-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
46-36 (+2.8)	Last season	45-37 (+0.6)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Raptors

Kawhi Leonard FOut

Nate Bittle COut

Injury report Magic

Jonathan Isaac FOut

Jalen Suggs GOut

Paolo Banchero FOut

Noah Penda FOut

Izaiyah Nelson FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.