Trail Blazers vs Wizards prediction NBA · Saturday, December 26
At a glance
The Washington Wizards (2-3) host the Portland Trail Blazers (3-0) on Saturday, December 26 at 1:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Trail Blazers a 77% chance to win and projects a 121-111 score (Trail Blazers – Wizards), about 232 total points. This season, the Wizards are 1-1 at home and the Trail Blazers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Wizards and 3-0 for the Trail Blazers (current streaks: Wizards L2, Trail Blazers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 24% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Chris Youngblood (Trail Blazers), Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers), Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards) and Jamir Watkins (Wizards). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Trail Blazers dominate this matchup. The model projects Wizards 111 – 121 Trail Blazers, a margin of about 9.3 points in favor of the Trail Blazers and a total around 232 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). The Trail Blazers will be without Chris Youngblood or Shaedon Sharpe. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-7.7 vs +3.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Trail Blazers' offense (118.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Trail Blazers' defense allows clearly fewer points (114.7 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
PORWSH
Players to watch
Trail Blazers
Deni AvdijaF · #822.3pts / game
Ja MorantG · #16.3assists
Donovan ClinganC · #239.3reboundsWizards
Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game
Trae YoungG · #310.4assistsAnthony DavisF · #238.4reboundsRecent form
POR
110-98L
128-118W
124-83W128-120W
136-129WSH
128-116L
112-102W
124-120L
110-103L
121-111
POR
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| POR | WSH | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-0 | Record | 2-3 |
| 118.2 | Points scored / game | 113.1 |
| 114.7 | Points allowed / game | 122.2 |
| +3.0 | Adjusted margin / game | -7.7 |
| W3 | Current streak | L2 |
| 3-0 | Last 10 games | 2-3 |
| 2-0 road | Home / road record | 1-1 home |
| 42-40 (-0.3) | Last season | 17-65 (-12.0) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Trail Blazers
Injury report Wizards
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.