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Timberwolves vs Bucks prediction NBA · Wednesday, December 23

Wed, Dec 23 · 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · MyMi, Bucks App, DAZN MIN

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 · away

Projected score

119-111

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · home

73% win MINwin MIL 27%

FavoriteMIN

Projected margin7.5

Projected total230

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) host the Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) on Wednesday, December 23 at 8:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 73% chance to win and projects a 119-111 score (Timberwolves – Bucks), about 230 total points. This season, the Bucks are 1-2 at home and the Timberwolves are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bucks and 3-2 for the Timberwolves (current streaks: Bucks L1, Timberwolves L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) and Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Timberwolves dominate this matchup. The model projects Bucks 111 – 119 Timberwolves, a margin of about 7.5 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo.

The overall strength gap (-6.4 vs +5.2 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Timberwolves' offense (118.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Timberwolves' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bucks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIL -6.4 / MIN +5.2 per game

-11.6

Home-court advantageBucks at home

+2.3

InjuriesMIL: 0 out, 0 questionable · MIN: 2 out, 0 questionable

+1.8

Expected marginfor Bucks

-7.5

Scenarios

Bucks win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

26%

Timberwolves win by 10+

42%

Stat comparison Current season

MINMIL

118.7

Points scored / game

111.4

112.6

Points allowed / game

119.0

47.3 %

Field goal %

44.9 %

38.4 %

3-point %

34.0 %

40.6

3-pointers attempted / game

41.2

62.7 %

Free throw %

71.6 %

51.6

Rebounds / game

49.8

27.0

Assists / game

24.6

9.2

Steals / game

5.8

4.4

Blocks / game

4.0

16.2

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Timberwolves

Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game

LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists

Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIN

131-106W

115-93W

117-94L

127-125 OTL

119-114

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIN 73% · MIL 27%

ESPN BPI

MIN 78% · MIL 22%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIN		MIL
3-2	Record	1-4
118.7	Points scored / game	111.4
112.6	Points allowed / game	119.0
+5.2	Adjusted margin / game	-6.4
L2	Current streak	L1
3-2	Last 10 games	1-4
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
49-33 (+3.4)	Last season	32-50 (-6.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut

Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.