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Bucks vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Monday, November 2

Mon, Nov 2 · 8:00 PM ETTarget Center · NBA League Pass, MyMi, Bucks App, DAZN MIN

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · away

Projected score

109-121

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 · home

17% win MILwin MIN 83%

FavoriteMIN

Projected margin12.1

Projected total230

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) host the Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) on Monday, November 2 at 8:00 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 83% chance to win and projects a 109-121 score (Bucks – Timberwolves), about 230 total points. This season, the Timberwolves are 1-1 at home and the Bucks are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Timberwolves and 1-4 for the Bucks (current streaks: Timberwolves L2, Bucks L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 20% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) and Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Timberwolves dominate this matchup. The model projects Timberwolves 121 – 109 Bucks, a margin of about 12.1 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo.

The overall strength gap (+5.2 vs -6.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Timberwolves' offense (118.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Timberwolves' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Timberwolves

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIN +5.2 / MIL -6.4 per game

+11.6

Home-court advantageTimberwolves at home

+2.3

InjuriesMIN: 2 out, 0 questionable · MIL: 0 out, 0 questionable

-1.8

Expected marginfor Timberwolves

+12.1

Scenarios

Timberwolves win by 10+

57%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

20%

Bucks win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

MILMIN

111.4

Points scored / game

118.7

119.0

Points allowed / game

112.6

44.9 %

Field goal %

47.3 %

34.0 %

3-point %

38.4 %

41.2

3-pointers attempted / game

40.6

71.6 %

Free throw %

62.7 %

49.8

Rebounds / game

51.6

24.6

Assists / game

27.0

5.8

Steals / game

9.2

4.0

Blocks / game

4.4

16.8

Turnovers / game

16.2

Players to watch

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Timberwolves

Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game

LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists

Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

MIN

131-106W

115-93W

117-94L

127-125 OTL

119-114

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIL 17% · MIN 83%

ESPN BPI

MIL 17% · MIN 84%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIL		MIN
1-4	Record	3-2
111.4	Points scored / game	118.7
119.0	Points allowed / game	112.6
-6.4	Adjusted margin / game	+5.2
L1	Current streak	L2
1-4	Last 10 games	3-2
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
32-50 (-6.2)	Last season	49-33 (+3.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut

Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.