Raptors vs Grizzlies prediction NBA · Wednesday, December 23
At a glance
The Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) host the Toronto Raptors (3-1) on Wednesday, December 23 at 8:00 PM ET at FedExForum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 53% chance to win and projects a 114-113 score (Raptors – Grizzlies), about 226 total points. This season, the Grizzlies are 1-0 at home and the Raptors are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-0 for the Grizzlies and 3-1 for the Raptors (current streaks: Grizzlies W4, Raptors W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Raptors played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Kawhi Leonard (Raptors) and Nate Bittle (Raptors). Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Grizzlies 113 – 114 Raptors, a margin of about 1.1 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Raptors played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-1.8 vs +5.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
TORMEM
Players to watch
Raptors
RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game
Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists
Scottie BarnesF · #47.2reboundsGrizzlies
Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / gameTy JeromeG · #26.5assists
Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5reboundsRecent form
TOR
129-125W
135-92W
112-102L
117-94W
129-99MEM
116-98W
123-103W
111-108W
123-112W110-105
MEM
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| TOR | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 4-0 |
| 115.4 | Points scored / game | 115.2 |
| 109.5 | Points allowed / game | 117.3 |
| +5.0 | Adjusted margin / game | -1.8 |
| W1 | Current streak | W4 |
| 3-1 | Last 10 games | 4-0 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 1-0 home |
| 46-36 (+2.8) | Last season | 25-57 (-6.0) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Raptors
Injury report Grizzlies
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.