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Grizzlies vs Raptors prediction NBA · Monday, November 9

Mon, Nov 9 · 7:30 PM ETScotiabank Arena · DAZN MEM

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · away

Projected score

110-118

Toronto Raptors

3-1 · home

28% win MEMwin TOR 72%

FavoriteTOR

Projected margin7.3

Projected total228

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Toronto Raptors (3-1) host the Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) on Monday, November 9 at 7:30 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 72% chance to win and projects a 110-118 score (Grizzlies – Raptors), about 228 total points. This season, the Raptors are 2-0 at home and the Grizzlies are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Raptors and 4-0 for the Grizzlies (current streaks: Raptors W1, Grizzlies W4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kawhi Leonard (Raptors) and Nate Bittle (Raptors). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Raptors, but the Grizzlies have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Raptors 118 – 110 Grizzlies, a margin of about 7.3 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+5.0 vs -1.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Raptors

Team strength (adjusted point differential)TOR +5.0 / MEM -1.8 per game

+6.8

Home-court advantageRaptors at home

+2.3

InjuriesTOR: 2 out, 0 questionable · MEM: 0 out, 0 questionable

-1.8

Expected marginfor Raptors

+7.3

Scenarios

Raptors win by 10+

41%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

27%

Grizzlies win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

MEMTOR

115.2

Points scored / game

115.4

117.3

Points allowed / game

109.5

45.3 %

Field goal %

44.2 %

39.1 %

3-point %

30.4 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

34.5

82.8 %

Free throw %

79.0 %

50.0

Rebounds / game

45.8

25.0

Assists / game

27.3

6.3

Steals / game

14.3

6.3

Blocks / game

5.5

15.5

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Raptors

RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game

Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists

Scottie BarnesF · #47.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

TOR

129-125W

135-92W

112-102L

117-94W

129-99

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MEM 28% · TOR 72%

ESPN BPI

MEM 39% · TOR 61%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MEM		TOR
4-0	Record	3-1
115.2	Points scored / game	115.4
117.3	Points allowed / game	109.5
-1.8	Adjusted margin / game	+5.0
W4	Current streak	W1
4-0	Last 10 games	3-1
3-0 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
25-57 (-6.0)	Last season	46-36 (+2.8)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Injury report Raptors

Kawhi Leonard FOut

Nate Bittle COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.