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Rockets vs 76ers prediction NBA · Wednesday, December 23

Wed, Dec 23 · 7:30 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · Prime Video

Houston Rockets

5-0 · away

Projected score

115-110

Philadelphia 76ers

4-1 · home

64% win HOUwin PHI 36%

FavoriteHOU

Projected margin4.5

Projected total225

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) host the Houston Rockets (5-0) on Wednesday, December 23 at 7:30 PM ET at Xfinity Mobile Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 64% chance to win and projects a 115-110 score (Rockets – 76ers), about 225 total points. This season, the 76ers are 2-1 at home and the Rockets are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the 76ers and 5-0 for the Rockets (current streaks: 76ers W1, Rockets W5). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets), Steven Adams (Rockets), Jabari Walker (76ers), Tacko Fall (76ers) and Dominick Barlow (76ers)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Rockets, but the 76ers have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects 76ers 110 – 115 Rockets, a margin of about 4.5 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others). The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (+0.7 vs +6.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The 76ers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Rockets' offense (117.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge 76ers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHI +0.7 / HOU +6.7 per game

-5.9

Home-court advantage76ers at home

+2.3

InjuriesPHI: 4 out, 1 questionable · HOU: 3 out, 1 questionable

-0.9

Expected marginfor 76ers

-4.5

Scenarios

76ers win by 10+

12%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Rockets win by 10+

33%

Stat comparison Current season

HOUPHI

117.5

Points scored / game

114.4

109.7

Points allowed / game

113.5

51.7 %

Field goal %

42.8 %

40.4 %

3-point %

32.6 %

32.2

3-pointers attempted / game

35.0

84.7 %

Free throw %

77.5 %

44.8

Rebounds / game

42.2

28.2

Assists / game

24.6

10.2

Steals / game

9.8

6.0

Blocks / game

5.6

15.8

Turnovers / game

12.6

Players to watch

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

76ers

Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game

LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists

Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

PHI

106-100W

114-106W

127-116L

106-93W

114-109

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

HOU 64% · PHI 36%

ESPN BPI

HOU 53% · PHI 47%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

HOU		PHI
5-0	Record	4-1
117.5	Points scored / game	114.4
109.7	Points allowed / game	113.5
+6.7	Adjusted margin / game	+0.7
W5	Current streak	W1
5-0	Last 10 games	4-1
3-0 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
52-30 (+5.2)	Last season	45-37 (-0.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Injury report 76ers

Jabari Walker FOut

Tacko Fall COut

Dominick Barlow FOut

Ariel Hukporti COut

Jaylen Brown GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.