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76ers vs Rockets prediction NBA · Saturday, November 28

Sat, Nov 28 · 8:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · NBA TV

Philadelphia 76ers

4-1 · away

Projected score

106-117

Houston Rockets

5-0 · home

20% win PHIwin HOU 80%

FavoriteHOU

Projected margin10.7

Projected total223

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Houston Rockets (5-0) host the Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) on Saturday, November 28 at 8:30 PM ET at Toyota Center (Houston) in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 80% chance to win and projects a 106-117 score (76ers – Rockets), about 223 total points. This season, the Rockets are 2-0 at home and the 76ers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 5-0 for the Rockets and 4-1 for the 76ers (current streaks: Rockets W5, 76ers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 22% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the 76ers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jabari Walker (76ers), Tacko Fall (76ers), Dominick Barlow (76ers), Ariel Hukporti (76ers), Reed Sheppard (Rockets) and Marcus Smart (Rockets)…. Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Rockets start with a clear edge. The model projects Rockets 117 – 106 76ers, a margin of about 10.7 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 223 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The 76ers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other). The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others).

The overall strength gap (+6.7 vs +0.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The 76ers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Rockets' offense (117.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Rockets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)HOU +6.7 / PHI +0.7 per game

+5.9

Home-court advantageRockets at home

+2.3

Back-to-back76ers played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesHOU: 3 out, 1 questionable · PHI: 4 out, 1 questionable

+0.9

Expected marginfor Rockets

+10.7

Scenarios

Rockets win by 10+

52%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

22%

76ers win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

PHIHOU

114.4

Points scored / game

117.5

113.5

Points allowed / game

109.7

42.8 %

Field goal %

51.7 %

32.6 %

3-point %

40.4 %

35.0

3-pointers attempted / game

32.2

77.5 %

Free throw %

84.7 %

42.2

Rebounds / game

44.8

24.6

Assists / game

28.2

9.8

Steals / game

10.2

5.6

Blocks / game

6.0

12.6

Turnovers / game

15.8

Players to watch

76ers

Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game

LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists

Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHI

106-100W

114-106W

127-116L

106-93W

114-109

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHI 20% · HOU 80%

ESPN BPI

PHI 36% · HOU 64%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PHI		HOU
4-1	Record	5-0
114.4	Points scored / game	117.5
113.5	Points allowed / game	109.7
+0.7	Adjusted margin / game	+6.7
W1	Current streak	W5
4-1	Last 10 games	5-0
2-0 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
45-37 (-0.2)	Last season	52-30 (+5.2)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report 76ers

Jabari Walker FOut

Tacko Fall COut

Dominick Barlow FOut

Ariel Hukporti COut

Jaylen Brown GDay-To-Day

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.