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Bulls vs Heat prediction NBA · Monday, December 21

Mon, Dec 21 · 7:30 PM ETKaseya Center

Chicago Bulls

1-4 · away

Projected score

113-123

Miami Heat

1-4 · home

22% win CHIwin MIA 78%

FavoriteMIA

Projected margin9.5

Projected total236

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Miami Heat (1-4) host the Chicago Bulls (1-4) on Monday, December 21 at 7:30 PM ET at Kaseya Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Heat a 78% chance to win and projects a 113-123 score (Bulls – Heat), about 236 total points. This season, the Heat are 0-3 at home and the Bulls are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Heat and 1-4 for the Bulls (current streaks: Heat W1, Bulls L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 24% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Heat played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Patrick Williams (Bulls) and Nic Claxton (Bulls). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Heat dominate this matchup. The model projects Heat 123 – 113 Bulls, a margin of about 9.5 points in favor of the Heat and a total around 236 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Heat played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton.

The overall strength gap (-0.6 vs -7.2 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Heat's defense allows clearly fewer points (119.2 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Heat

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIA -0.6 / CHI -7.2 per game

+6.6

Home-court advantageHeat at home

+2.3

Back-to-backHeat played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesMIA: 0 out, 1 questionable · CHI: 2 out, 2 questionable

+2.1

Expected marginfor Heat

+9.5

Scenarios

Heat win by 10+

48%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

24%

Bulls win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

CHIMIA

115.6

Points scored / game

118.6

124.1

Points allowed / game

119.2

42.1 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

27.6 %

3-point %

31.7 %

42.0

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

78.6 %

Free throw %

71.7 %

44.8

Rebounds / game

42.8

24.4

Assists / game

27.0

9.0

Steals / game

8.4

4.8

Blocks / game

5.4

17.8

Turnovers / game

14.2

Players to watch

Bulls

Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game

Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists

Jalen SmithF · #258.2rebounds

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CHI

135-92W

132-125L

124-120L

134-99L

133-127

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CHI 22% · MIA 78%

ESPN BPI

CHI 25% · MIA 75%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CHI		MIA
1-4	Record	1-4
115.6	Points scored / game	118.6
124.1	Points allowed / game	119.2
-7.2	Adjusted margin / game	-0.6
L3	Current streak	W1
1-4	Last 10 games	1-4
1-2 road	Home / road record	0-3 home
31-51 (-5.2)	Last season	43-39 (+2.3)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Bulls

Patrick Williams FOut

Nic Claxton COut

Jalen Smith FDay-To-Day

Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.