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Heat vs Bulls prediction NBA · Monday, December 14

Mon, Dec 14 · 8:00 PM ETUnited Center

Miami Heat

1-4 · away

Projected score

122-114

Chicago Bulls

1-4 · home

74% win MIAwin CHI 26%

FavoriteMIA

Projected margin8.1

Projected total236

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Chicago Bulls (1-4) host the Miami Heat (1-4) on Monday, December 14 at 8:00 PM ET at United Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Heat a 74% chance to win and projects a 122-114 score (Heat – Bulls), about 236 total points. This season, the Bulls are 0-2 at home and the Heat are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bulls and 1-4 for the Heat (current streaks: Bulls L3, Heat W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Bulls played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Patrick Williams (Bulls) and Nic Claxton (Bulls). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Heat start with a clear edge. The model projects Bulls 114 – 122 Heat, a margin of about 8.1 points in favor of the Heat and a total around 236 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Bulls played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton.

The overall strength gap (-7.2 vs -0.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Heat's defense allows clearly fewer points (119.2 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bulls

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHI -7.2 / MIA -0.6 per game

-6.6

Home-court advantageBulls at home

+2.3

Back-to-backBulls played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesCHI: 2 out, 2 questionable · MIA: 0 out, 1 questionable

-2.1

Expected marginfor Bulls

-8.1

Scenarios

Bulls win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

26%

Heat win by 10+

44%

Stat comparison Current season

MIACHI

118.6

Points scored / game

115.6

119.2

Points allowed / game

124.1

45.3 %

Field goal %

42.1 %

31.7 %

3-point %

27.6 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

42.0

71.7 %

Free throw %

78.6 %

42.8

Rebounds / game

44.8

27.0

Assists / game

24.4

8.4

Steals / game

9.0

5.4

Blocks / game

4.8

14.2

Turnovers / game

17.8

Players to watch

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Bulls

Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game

Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists

Jalen SmithF · #258.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

CHI

135-92W

132-125L

124-120L

134-99L

133-127

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIA 74% · CHI 26%

ESPN BPI

MIA 70% · CHI 30%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIA		CHI
1-4	Record	1-4
118.6	Points scored / game	115.6
119.2	Points allowed / game	124.1
-0.6	Adjusted margin / game	-7.2
W1	Current streak	L3
1-4	Last 10 games	1-4
1-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
43-39 (+2.3)	Last season	31-51 (-5.2)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Injury report Bulls

Patrick Williams FOut

Nic Claxton COut

Jalen Smith FDay-To-Day

Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.