Knicks vs Cavaliers prediction NBA · Monday, December 21
At a glance
The Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) host the New York Knicks (2-3) on Monday, December 21 at 7:00 PM ET at Rocket Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Cavaliers a 50% chance to win and projects a 114-115 score (Knicks – Cavaliers), about 228 total points. This season, the Cavaliers are 3-0 at home and the Knicks are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Cavaliers and 2-3 for the Knicks (current streaks: Cavaliers W3, Knicks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Cavaliers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jose Alvarado (Knicks). Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Cavaliers 115 – 114 Knicks, a margin of about 0.1 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Cavaliers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Knicks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Cavaliers' offense (119.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Knicks' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.0 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
NYCLE
Players to watch
Knicks
Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game
Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists
Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8reboundsCavaliers
Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game
James HardenG · #16.8assists
Evan MobleyC · #410.0reboundsRecent form
NY
106-100L
107-103L
111-102W
111-97W
133-127CLE132-116L114-106W
125-121W
127-125 OTW
121-111Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
NY
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.
Team comparison
| NY | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| 114.5 | Points scored / game | 119.6 |
| 110.0 | Points allowed / game | 116.0 |
| +3.8 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.0 |
| W2 | Current streak | W3 |
| 2-3 | Last 10 games | 3-1 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 3-0 home |
| 53-29 (+6.3) | Last season | 52-30 (+4.1) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Knicks
Injury report Cavaliers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.