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Jazz vs Cavaliers prediction NBA · Sunday, December 20

Sun, Dec 20 · 6:00 PM ETRocket Arena · DAZN CLE, KJZZ-TV, Jazz+

Utah Jazz

1-4 · away

Projected score

111-125

Cleveland Cavaliers

3-1 · home

12% win UTAHwin CLE 88%

FavoriteCLE

Projected margin14.5

Projected total236

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) host the Utah Jazz (1-4) on Sunday, December 20 at 6:00 PM ET at Rocket Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Cavaliers a 88% chance to win and projects a 111-125 score (Jazz – Cavaliers), about 236 total points. This season, the Cavaliers are 3-0 at home and the Jazz are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Cavaliers and 1-4 for the Jazz (current streaks: Cavaliers W3, Jazz L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 16% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz), Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz) and Meleek Thomas (Cavaliers). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Cavaliers start with a clear edge. The model projects Cavaliers 125 – 111 Jazz, a margin of about 14.5 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 236 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Cavaliers will be without Meleek Thomas. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+3.0 vs -7.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Cavaliers' offense (119.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Cavaliers' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Cavaliers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CLE +3.0 / UTAH -7.0 per game

+10.1

Home-court advantageCavaliers at home

+2.3

InjuriesCLE: 1 out, 0 questionable · UTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable

+2.2

Expected marginfor Cavaliers

+14.5

Scenarios

Cavaliers win by 10+

64%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

16%

Jazz win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

UTAHCLE

116.1

Points scored / game

119.6

124.3

Points allowed / game

116.0

45.4 %

Field goal %

46.8 %

33.9 %

3-point %

36.7 %

34.8

3-pointers attempted / game

37.5

76.6 %

Free throw %

79.3 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

47.0

26.8

Assists / game

26.3

5.0

Steals / game

8.8

6.4

Blocks / game

7.5

17.0

Turnovers / game

17.3

Players to watch

Jazz

Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game

Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists

Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Cavaliers

Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game

James HardenG · #16.8assists

Evan MobleyC · #410.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

UTAH

123-103W

120-119L

132-123L

110-105L

117-111 OT

CLE

132-116L

114-106W

125-121W

127-125 OTW WSH

121-111

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

UTAH 12% · CLE 88%

ESPN BPI

UTAH 26% · CLE 74%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

UTAH		CLE
1-4	Record	3-1
116.1	Points scored / game	119.6
124.3	Points allowed / game	116.0
-7.0	Adjusted margin / game	+3.0
L3	Current streak	W3
1-4	Last 10 games	3-1
0-1 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
22-60 (-8.4)	Last season	52-30 (+4.1)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut

Trey Alexander GOut

Jusuf Nurkic COut

Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Injury report Cavaliers

Meleek Thomas GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.