Rockets vs Raptors prediction NBA · Sunday, December 20
At a glance
The Toronto Raptors (3-1) host the Houston Rockets (5-0) on Sunday, December 20 at 3:30 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 56% chance to win and projects a 111-113 score (Rockets – Raptors), about 224 total points. This season, the Raptors are 2-0 at home and the Rockets are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Raptors and 5-0 for the Rockets (current streaks: Raptors W1, Rockets W5). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets), Steven Adams (Rockets), Kawhi Leonard (Raptors) and Nate Bittle (Raptors). Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Raptors 113 – 111 Rockets, a margin of about 1.9 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Rockets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
HOUTOR
Players to watch
Rockets
Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / gameAlperen SengunC · #287.0assistsAlperen SengunC · #289.0reboundsRaptors
RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game
Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists
Scottie BarnesF · #47.2reboundsRecent form
HOU
128-110W
114-110W
121-114W120-110W
132-100TOR
129-125W
135-92W
112-102L
117-94W
129-99
TOR
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| HOU | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 3-1 |
| 117.5 | Points scored / game | 115.4 |
| 109.7 | Points allowed / game | 109.5 |
| +6.7 | Adjusted margin / game | +5.0 |
| W5 | Current streak | W1 |
| 5-0 | Last 10 games | 3-1 |
| 3-0 road | Home / road record | 2-0 home |
| 52-30 (+5.2) | Last season | 46-36 (+2.8) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Rockets
Injury report Raptors
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.