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Raptors vs Rockets prediction NBA · Tuesday, December 1

Tue, Dec 1 · 8:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston)

Toronto Raptors

3-1 · away

Projected score

111-112

Houston Rockets

5-0 · home

46% win TORwin HOU 54%

FavoriteHOU

Projected margin1.1

Projected total223

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Houston Rockets (5-0) host the Toronto Raptors (3-1) on Tuesday, December 1 at 8:30 PM ET at Toyota Center (Houston) in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 54% chance to win and projects a 111-112 score (Raptors – Rockets), about 223 total points. This season, the Rockets are 2-0 at home and the Raptors are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 5-0 for the Rockets and 3-1 for the Raptors (current streaks: Rockets W5, Raptors W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Rockets played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Kawhi Leonard (Raptors), Nate Bittle (Raptors), Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets) and Steven Adams (Rockets). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Rockets 112 – 111 Raptors, a margin of about 1.1 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 223 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Rockets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other). The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Raptors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Rockets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)HOU +6.7 / TOR +5.0 per game

+1.7

Home-court advantageRockets at home

+2.3

Back-to-backRockets played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesHOU: 3 out, 1 questionable · TOR: 2 out, 0 questionable

-1.3

Expected marginfor Rockets

+1.1

Scenarios

Rockets win by 10+

24%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Raptors win by 10+

19%

Stat comparison Current season

TORHOU

115.4

Points scored / game

117.5

109.5

Points allowed / game

109.7

44.2 %

Field goal %

51.7 %

30.4 %

3-point %

40.4 %

34.5

3-pointers attempted / game

32.2

79.0 %

Free throw %

84.7 %

45.8

Rebounds / game

44.8

27.3

Assists / game

28.2

14.3

Steals / game

10.2

5.5

Blocks / game

6.0

14.0

Turnovers / game

15.8

Players to watch

Raptors

RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game

Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists

Scottie BarnesF · #47.2rebounds

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

TOR

129-125W

135-92W

112-102L

117-94W

129-99

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

TOR 46% · HOU 54%

ESPN BPI

TOR 42% · HOU 58%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

TOR		HOU
3-1	Record	5-0
115.4	Points scored / game	117.5
109.5	Points allowed / game	109.7
+5.0	Adjusted margin / game	+6.7
W1	Current streak	W5
3-1	Last 10 games	5-0
1-1 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
46-36 (+2.8)	Last season	52-30 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Raptors

Kawhi Leonard FOut

Nate Bittle COut

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.