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Bulls vs Spurs prediction NBA · Friday, December 18

Fri, Dec 18 · 8:00 PM ETFrost Bank Center · DAZN SAS

Chicago Bulls

1-4 · away

Projected score

108-125

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · home

9% win CHIwin SA 91%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin16.8

Projected total233

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The San Antonio Spurs (3-2) host the Chicago Bulls (1-4) on Friday, December 18 at 8:00 PM ET at Frost Bank Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 91% chance to win and projects a 108-125 score (Bulls – Spurs), about 233 total points. This season, the Spurs are 1-2 at home and the Bulls are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Spurs and 1-4 for the Bulls (current streaks: Spurs W3, Bulls L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 13% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Patrick Williams (Bulls), Nic Claxton (Bulls), Tobias Harris (Spurs) and Jayden Quaintance (Spurs). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Spurs start with a clear edge. The model projects Spurs 125 – 108 Bulls, a margin of about 16.8 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance. The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton.

The overall strength gap (+6.6 vs -7.2 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.1 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Spurs

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SA +6.6 / CHI -7.2 per game

+13.8

Home-court advantageSpurs at home

+2.3

InjuriesSA: 2 out, 0 questionable · CHI: 2 out, 2 questionable

+0.7

Expected marginfor Spurs

+16.8

Scenarios

Spurs win by 10+

71%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

13%

Bulls win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

CHISA

115.6

Points scored / game

118.9

124.1

Points allowed / game

111.1

42.1 %

Field goal %

46.0 %

27.6 %

3-point %

34.6 %

42.0

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

78.6 %

Free throw %

78.3 %

44.8

Rebounds / game

45.0

24.4

Assists / game

28.2

9.0

Steals / game

9.8

4.8

Blocks / game

6.6

17.8

Turnovers / game

12.8

Players to watch

Bulls

Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game

Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists

Jalen SmithF · #258.2rebounds

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CHI

135-92W

132-125L

124-120L

134-99L

133-127

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CHI 9% · SA 91%

ESPN BPI

CHI 10% · SA 90%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CHI		SA
1-4	Record	3-2
115.6	Points scored / game	118.9
124.1	Points allowed / game	111.1
-7.2	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
L3	Current streak	W3
1-4	Last 10 games	3-2
1-2 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
31-51 (-5.2)	Last season	62-20 (+8.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Bulls

Patrick Williams FOut

Nic Claxton COut

Jalen Smith FDay-To-Day

Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.