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Spurs vs Bulls prediction NBA · Wednesday, November 11

Wed, Nov 11 · 8:00 PM ETUnited Center · DAZN SAS

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · away

Projected score

123-110

Chicago Bulls

1-4 · home

84% win SAwin CHI 16%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin12.2

Projected total233

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Chicago Bulls (1-4) host the San Antonio Spurs (3-2) on Wednesday, November 11 at 8:00 PM ET at United Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 84% chance to win and projects a 123-110 score (Spurs – Bulls), about 233 total points. This season, the Bulls are 0-2 at home and the Spurs are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bulls and 3-2 for the Spurs (current streaks: Bulls L3, Spurs W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 20% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tobias Harris (Spurs), Jayden Quaintance (Spurs), Patrick Williams (Bulls) and Nic Claxton (Bulls). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Spurs dominate this matchup. The model projects Bulls 110 – 123 Spurs, a margin of about 12.2 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance.

The overall strength gap (-7.2 vs +6.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.1 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bulls

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHI -7.2 / SA +6.6 per game

-13.8

Home-court advantageBulls at home

+2.3

InjuriesCHI: 2 out, 2 questionable · SA: 2 out, 0 questionable

-0.7

Expected marginfor Bulls

-12.2

Scenarios

Bulls win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

20%

Spurs win by 10+

57%

Stat comparison Current season

SACHI

118.9

Points scored / game

115.6

111.1

Points allowed / game

124.1

46.0 %

Field goal %

42.1 %

34.6 %

3-point %

27.6 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

42.0

78.3 %

Free throw %

78.6 %

45.0

Rebounds / game

44.8

28.2

Assists / game

24.4

9.8

Steals / game

9.0

6.6

Blocks / game

4.8

12.8

Turnovers / game

17.8

Players to watch

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Bulls

Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game

Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists

Jalen SmithF · #258.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

CHI

135-92W

132-125L

124-120L

134-99L

133-127

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SA 84% · CHI 16%

ESPN BPI

SA 84% · CHI 16%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SA		CHI
3-2	Record	1-4
118.9	Points scored / game	115.6
111.1	Points allowed / game	124.1
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	-7.2
W3	Current streak	L3
3-2	Last 10 games	1-4
2-0 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
62-20 (+8.3)	Last season	31-51 (-5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Injury report Bulls

Patrick Williams FOut

Nic Claxton COut

Jalen Smith FDay-To-Day

Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.