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Magic vs Nets prediction NBA · Friday, December 18

Fri, Dec 18 · 7:30 PM ETBarclays Center · DAZN (YES)

Orlando Magic

1-3 · away

Projected score

113-112

Brooklyn Nets

0-4 · home

54% win ORLwin BKN 46%

FavoriteORL

Projected margin1.2

Projected total225

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Brooklyn Nets (0-4) host the Orlando Magic (1-3) on Friday, December 18 at 7:30 PM ET at Barclays Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Magic a 54% chance to win and projects a 113-112 score (Magic – Nets), about 225 total points. This season, the Nets are 0-2 at home and the Magic are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Nets and 1-3 for the Magic (current streaks: Nets L4, Magic L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jonathan Isaac (Magic), Jalen Suggs (Magic), Paolo Banchero (Magic), Noah Penda (Magic), Izaiyah Nelson (Magic) and Egor Demin (Nets)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Nets 112 – 113 Magic, a margin of about 1.2 points in favor of the Magic and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nets will be without Egor Demin or Tyler Bilodeau. The Magic will be without Jonathan Isaac or Jalen Suggs (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-8.4 vs -2.3 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Nets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Magic's offense (113.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BKN -8.4 / ORL -2.3 per game

-6.2

Home-court advantageNets at home

+2.3

InjuriesBKN: 2 out, 0 questionable · ORL: 5 out, 0 questionable

+2.7

Expected marginfor Nets

-1.2

Scenarios

Nets win by 10+

19%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Magic win by 10+

24%

Stat comparison Current season

ORLBKN

113.6

Points scored / game

108.0

116.2

Points allowed / game

117.9

44.2 %

Field goal %

42.9 %

31.4 %

3-point %

36.7 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

42.3

75.0 %

Free throw %

76.6 %

41.3

Rebounds / game

43.5

26.0

Assists / game

24.0

7.8

Steals / game

10.0

4.5

Blocks / game

4.0

17.8

Turnovers / game

17.5

Players to watch

Magic

Franz WagnerF · #2219.5pts / game

Franz WagnerF · #226.0assists

Wendell Carter Jr.C · #349.0rebounds

Nets

Michael Porter Jr.F · #1722.8pts / game

Julius RandleF · #305.8assists

Julius RandleF · #307.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

ORL

136-115L

132-125L

115-93W

111-102L

129-99

BKN

L144-128L110-103L125-121L136-109L125-124 OT

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

ORL 54% · BKN 46%

ESPN BPI

ORL 64% · BKN 37%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ORL		BKN
1-3	Record	0-4
113.6	Points scored / game	108.0
116.2	Points allowed / game	117.9
-2.3	Adjusted margin / game	-8.4
L1	Current streak	L4
1-3	Last 10 games	0-4
1-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
45-37 (+0.6)	Last season	20-62 (-10.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Magic

Jonathan Isaac FOut

Jalen Suggs GOut

Paolo Banchero FOut

Noah Penda FOut

Izaiyah Nelson FOut

Injury report Nets

Egor Demin GOut

Tyler Bilodeau FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.