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Mavericks vs 76ers prediction NBA · Thursday, December 17

Thu, Dec 17 · 7:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · NBA TV, KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · away

Projected score

109-116

Philadelphia 76ers

4-1 · home

28% win DALwin PHI 72%

FavoritePHI

Projected margin7.4

Projected total225

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) host the Dallas Mavericks (3-2) on Thursday, December 17 at 7:00 PM ET at Xfinity Mobile Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the 76ers a 72% chance to win and projects a 109-116 score (Mavericks – 76ers), about 225 total points. This season, the 76ers are 2-1 at home and the Mavericks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the 76ers and 3-2 for the Mavericks (current streaks: 76ers W1, Mavericks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Mavericks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks), Dereck Lively II (Mavericks), Jabari Walker (76ers) and Tacko Fall (76ers)…. Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the 76ers dominate this matchup. The model projects 76ers 116 – 109 Mavericks, a margin of about 7.4 points in favor of the 76ers and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others). The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others).

The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The 76ers' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge 76ers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHI +0.7 / DAL -2.8 per game

+3.5

Home-court advantage76ers at home

+2.3

Back-to-backMavericks played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesPHI: 4 out, 1 questionable · DAL: 4 out, 1 questionable

0.0

Expected marginfor 76ers

+7.4

Scenarios

76ers win by 10+

42%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

26%

Mavericks win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

DALPHI

114.1

Points scored / game

114.4

117.4

Points allowed / game

113.5

49.0 %

Field goal %

42.8 %

34.6 %

3-point %

32.6 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

35.0

76.7 %

Free throw %

77.5 %

44.2

Rebounds / game

42.2

27.6

Assists / game

24.6

9.0

Steals / game

9.8

7.4

Blocks / game

5.6

15.6

Turnovers / game

12.6

Players to watch

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

76ers

Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game

LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists

Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

PHI

106-100W

114-106W

127-116L

106-93W

114-109

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DAL 28% · PHI 72%

ESPN BPI

DAL 29% · PHI 71%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DAL		PHI
3-2	Record	4-1
114.1	Points scored / game	114.4
117.4	Points allowed / game	113.5
-2.8	Adjusted margin / game	+0.7
W2	Current streak	W1
3-2	Last 10 games	4-1
2-1 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
26-56 (-5.5)	Last season	45-37 (-0.2)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Injury report 76ers

Jabari Walker FOut

Tacko Fall COut

Dominick Barlow FOut

Ariel Hukporti COut

Jaylen Brown GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.