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76ers vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Monday, February 15

Mon, Feb 15 · 2:30 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center · NBC

Philadelphia 76ers

4-1 · away

Projected score

114-113

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · home

54% win PHIwin DAL 46%

FavoritePHI

Projected margin1.2

Projected total227

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Dallas Mavericks (3-2) host the Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) on Monday, February 15 at 2:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the 76ers a 54% chance to win and projects a 114-113 score (76ers – Mavericks), about 227 total points. This season, the Mavericks are 1-1 at home and the 76ers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Mavericks and 4-1 for the 76ers (current streaks: Mavericks W2, 76ers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jabari Walker (76ers), Tacko Fall (76ers), Dominick Barlow (76ers), Ariel Hukporti (76ers), Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks) and Santi Aldama (Mavericks)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Mavericks 113 – 114 76ers, a margin of about 1.2 points in favor of the 76ers and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others). The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others).

The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The 76ers' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Mavericks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DAL -2.8 / PHI +0.7 per game

-3.5

Home-court advantageMavericks at home

+2.3

InjuriesDAL: 4 out, 1 questionable · PHI: 4 out, 1 questionable

0.0

Expected marginfor Mavericks

-1.2

Scenarios

Mavericks win by 10+

18%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

76ers win by 10+

24%

Stat comparison Current season

PHIDAL

114.4

Points scored / game

114.1

113.5

Points allowed / game

117.4

42.8 %

Field goal %

49.0 %

32.6 %

3-point %

34.6 %

35.0

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

77.5 %

Free throw %

76.7 %

42.2

Rebounds / game

44.2

24.6

Assists / game

27.6

9.8

Steals / game

9.0

5.6

Blocks / game

7.4

12.6

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

76ers

Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game

LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists

Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHI

106-100W

114-106W

127-116L

106-93W

114-109

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHI 54% · DAL 46%

ESPN BPI

PHI 58% · DAL 42%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PHI		DAL
4-1	Record	3-2
114.4	Points scored / game	114.1
113.5	Points allowed / game	117.4
+0.7	Adjusted margin / game	-2.8
W1	Current streak	W2
4-1	Last 10 games	3-2
2-0 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
45-37 (-0.2)	Last season	26-56 (-5.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report 76ers

Jabari Walker FOut

Tacko Fall COut

Dominick Barlow FOut

Ariel Hukporti COut

Jaylen Brown GDay-To-Day

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.