Spurs vs Raptors prediction NBA · Wednesday, December 16
At a glance
The Toronto Raptors (3-1) host the San Antonio Spurs (3-2) on Wednesday, December 16 at 7:30 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 57% chance to win and projects a 111-113 score (Spurs – Raptors), about 224 total points. This season, the Raptors are 2-0 at home and the Spurs are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Raptors and 3-2 for the Spurs (current streaks: Raptors W1, Spurs W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Spurs played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Tobias Harris (Spurs), Jayden Quaintance (Spurs), Kawhi Leonard (Raptors) and Nate Bittle (Raptors). Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Raptors 113 – 111 Spurs, a margin of about 2.3 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Spurs played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Spurs need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Spurs' offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
SATOR
Players to watch
Spurs
Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game
De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assistsVictor WembanyamaF · #111.4reboundsRaptors
RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game
Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists
Scottie BarnesF · #47.2reboundsRecent form
SA
116-104L
114-110W
122-106W
130-103W
117-111 OTTOR
129-125W
135-92W
112-102L
117-94W
129-99
TOR
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.
Team comparison
| SA | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-1 |
| 118.9 | Points scored / game | 115.4 |
| 111.1 | Points allowed / game | 109.5 |
| +6.6 | Adjusted margin / game | +5.0 |
| W3 | Current streak | W1 |
| 3-2 | Last 10 games | 3-1 |
| 2-0 road | Home / road record | 2-0 home |
| 62-20 (+8.3) | Last season | 46-36 (+2.8) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Spurs
Injury report Raptors
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.