Raptors vs Spurs prediction NBA · Thursday, December 3
At a glance
The San Antonio Spurs (3-2) host the Toronto Raptors (3-1) on Thursday, December 3 at 8:00 PM ET at Frost Bank Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 62% chance to win and projects a 111-115 score (Raptors – Spurs), about 226 total points. This season, the Spurs are 1-2 at home and the Raptors are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Spurs and 3-1 for the Raptors (current streaks: Spurs W3, Raptors W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kawhi Leonard (Raptors), Nate Bittle (Raptors), Tobias Harris (Spurs) and Jayden Quaintance (Spurs). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Spurs are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Spurs 115 – 111 Raptors, a margin of about 3.9 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Raptors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Spurs' offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
TORSA
Players to watch
Raptors
RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game
Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists
Scottie BarnesF · #47.2reboundsSpurs
Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game
De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assistsVictor WembanyamaF · #111.4reboundsRecent form
TOR
129-125W
135-92W
112-102L
117-94W
129-99SA
116-104L
114-110W
122-106W
130-103W
117-111 OT
TOR
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| TOR | SA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 115.4 | Points scored / game | 118.9 |
| 109.5 | Points allowed / game | 111.1 |
| +5.0 | Adjusted margin / game | +6.6 |
| W1 | Current streak | W3 |
| 3-1 | Last 10 games | 3-2 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 1-2 home |
| 46-36 (+2.8) | Last season | 62-20 (+8.3) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Raptors
Injury report Spurs
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.