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Mavericks vs Nets prediction NBA · Wednesday, December 16

Wed, Dec 16 · 7:30 PM ETBarclays Center · DAZN (YES), KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · away

Projected score

114-113

Brooklyn Nets

0-4 · home

54% win DALwin BKN 46%

FavoriteDAL

Projected margin1.2

Projected total226

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Brooklyn Nets (0-4) host the Dallas Mavericks (3-2) on Wednesday, December 16 at 7:30 PM ET at Barclays Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Mavericks a 54% chance to win and projects a 114-113 score (Mavericks – Nets), about 226 total points. This season, the Nets are 0-2 at home and the Mavericks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Nets and 3-2 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Nets L4, Mavericks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks), Dereck Lively II (Mavericks), Egor Demin (Nets) and Tyler Bilodeau (Nets). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Nets 113 – 114 Mavericks, a margin of about 1.2 points in favor of the Mavericks and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nets will be without Egor Demin or Tyler Bilodeau. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-8.4 vs -2.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Nets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Mavericks' offense (114.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BKN -8.4 / DAL -2.8 per game

-5.6

Home-court advantageNets at home

+2.3

InjuriesBKN: 2 out, 0 questionable · DAL: 4 out, 1 questionable

+2.2

Expected marginfor Nets

-1.2

Scenarios

Nets win by 10+

19%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Mavericks win by 10+

24%

Stat comparison Current season

DALBKN

114.1

Points scored / game

108.0

117.4

Points allowed / game

117.9

49.0 %

Field goal %

42.9 %

34.6 %

3-point %

36.7 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

42.3

76.7 %

Free throw %

76.6 %

44.2

Rebounds / game

43.5

27.6

Assists / game

24.0

9.0

Steals / game

10.0

7.4

Blocks / game

4.0

15.6

Turnovers / game

17.5

Players to watch

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Nets

Michael Porter Jr.F · #1722.8pts / game

Julius RandleF · #305.8assists

Julius RandleF · #307.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

BKN

L144-128L110-103L125-121L136-109L125-124 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DAL 54% · BKN 46%

ESPN BPI

DAL 65% · BKN 35%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DAL		BKN
3-2	Record	0-4
114.1	Points scored / game	108.0
117.4	Points allowed / game	117.9
-2.8	Adjusted margin / game	-8.4
W2	Current streak	L4
3-2	Last 10 games	0-4
2-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
26-56 (-5.5)	Last season	20-62 (-10.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Injury report Nets

Egor Demin GOut

Tyler Bilodeau FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.