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Nets vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Sunday, November 8

Sun, Nov 8 · 7:30 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center · DAZN (YES), KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Brooklyn Nets

0-4 · away

Projected score

109-116

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · home

28% win BKNwin DAL 72%

FavoriteDAL

Projected margin7.4

Projected total225

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Dallas Mavericks (3-2) host the Brooklyn Nets (0-4) on Sunday, November 8 at 7:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Mavericks a 72% chance to win and projects a 109-116 score (Nets – Mavericks), about 225 total points. This season, the Mavericks are 1-1 at home and the Nets are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Mavericks and 0-4 for the Nets (current streaks: Mavericks W2, Nets L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Nets played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Egor Demin (Nets), Tyler Bilodeau (Nets), Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks) and Dereck Lively II (Mavericks). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Mavericks start with a clear edge. The model projects Mavericks 116 – 109 Nets, a margin of about 7.4 points in favor of the Mavericks and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others). The Nets will be without Egor Demin or Tyler Bilodeau. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-2.8 vs -8.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Nets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Mavericks' offense (114.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Mavericks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DAL -2.8 / BKN -8.4 per game

+5.6

Home-court advantageMavericks at home

+2.3

Back-to-backNets played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesDAL: 4 out, 1 questionable · BKN: 2 out, 0 questionable

-2.2

Expected marginfor Mavericks

+7.4

Scenarios

Mavericks win by 10+

42%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

26%

Nets win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

BKNDAL

108.0

Points scored / game

114.1

117.9

Points allowed / game

117.4

42.9 %

Field goal %

49.0 %

36.7 %

3-point %

34.6 %

42.3

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

76.6 %

Free throw %

76.7 %

43.5

Rebounds / game

44.2

24.0

Assists / game

27.6

10.0

Steals / game

9.0

4.0

Blocks / game

7.4

17.5

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Nets

Michael Porter Jr.F · #1722.8pts / game

Julius RandleF · #305.8assists

Julius RandleF · #307.5rebounds

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

BKN

L144-128L110-103L125-121L136-109L125-124 OT

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

BKN 28% · DAL 72%

ESPN BPI

BKN 26% · DAL 74%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

BKN		DAL
0-4	Record	3-2
108.0	Points scored / game	114.1
117.9	Points allowed / game	117.4
-8.4	Adjusted margin / game	-2.8
L4	Current streak	W2
0-4	Last 10 games	3-2
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
20-62 (-10.0)	Last season	26-56 (-5.5)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Nets

Egor Demin GOut

Tyler Bilodeau FOut

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.