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76ers vs Magic prediction NBA · Monday, December 14

Mon, Dec 14 · 7:00 PM ETKia Center · NBCSN

Philadelphia 76ers

4-1 · away

Projected score

113-112

Orlando Magic

1-3 · home

54% win PHIwin ORL 46%

FavoritePHI

Projected margin1.2

Projected total225

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Orlando Magic (1-3) host the Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) on Monday, December 14 at 7:00 PM ET at Kia Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the 76ers a 54% chance to win and projects a 113-112 score (76ers – Magic), about 225 total points. This season, the Magic are 0-2 at home and the 76ers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-3 for the Magic and 4-1 for the 76ers (current streaks: Magic L1, 76ers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jabari Walker (76ers), Tacko Fall (76ers), Dominick Barlow (76ers), Ariel Hukporti (76ers), Jonathan Isaac (Magic) and Jalen Suggs (Magic)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Magic 112 – 113 76ers, a margin of about 1.2 points in favor of the 76ers and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Magic will be without Jonathan Isaac or Jalen Suggs (and 3 others). The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Magic need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Magic

Team strength (adjusted point differential)ORL -2.3 / PHI +0.7 per game

-3.0

Home-court advantageMagic at home

+2.3

InjuriesORL: 5 out, 0 questionable · PHI: 4 out, 1 questionable

-0.5

Expected marginfor Magic

-1.2

Scenarios

Magic win by 10+

18%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

76ers win by 10+

24%

Stat comparison Current season

PHIORL

114.4

Points scored / game

113.6

113.5

Points allowed / game

116.2

42.8 %

Field goal %

44.2 %

32.6 %

3-point %

31.4 %

35.0

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

77.5 %

Free throw %

75.0 %

42.2

Rebounds / game

41.3

24.6

Assists / game

26.0

9.8

Steals / game

7.8

5.6

Blocks / game

4.5

12.6

Turnovers / game

17.8

Players to watch

76ers

Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game

LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists

Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds

Magic

Franz WagnerF · #2219.5pts / game

Franz WagnerF · #226.0assists

Wendell Carter Jr.C · #349.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHI

106-100W

114-106W

127-116L

106-93W

114-109

ORL

136-115L

132-125L

115-93W

111-102L

129-99

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHI 54% · ORL 46%

ESPN BPI

PHI 60% · ORL 41%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PHI		ORL
4-1	Record	1-3
114.4	Points scored / game	113.6
113.5	Points allowed / game	116.2
+0.7	Adjusted margin / game	-2.3
W1	Current streak	L1
4-1	Last 10 games	1-3
2-0 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
45-37 (-0.2)	Last season	45-37 (+0.6)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report 76ers

Jabari Walker FOut

Tacko Fall COut

Dominick Barlow FOut

Ariel Hukporti COut

Jaylen Brown GDay-To-Day

Injury report Magic

Jonathan Isaac FOut

Jalen Suggs GOut

Paolo Banchero FOut

Noah Penda FOut

Izaiyah Nelson FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.