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Magic vs 76ers prediction NBA · Saturday, December 12

Sat, Dec 12 · 7:30 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena

Orlando Magic

1-3 · away

Projected score

110-116

Philadelphia 76ers

4-1 · home

32% win ORLwin PHI 68%

FavoritePHI

Projected margin5.8

Projected total225

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) host the Orlando Magic (1-3) on Saturday, December 12 at 7:30 PM ET at Xfinity Mobile Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the 76ers a 68% chance to win and projects a 110-116 score (Magic – 76ers), about 225 total points. This season, the 76ers are 2-1 at home and the Magic are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the 76ers and 1-3 for the Magic (current streaks: 76ers W1, Magic L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jonathan Isaac (Magic), Jalen Suggs (Magic), Paolo Banchero (Magic), Noah Penda (Magic), Izaiyah Nelson (Magic) and Jabari Walker (76ers)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The 76ers are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects 76ers 116 – 110 Magic, a margin of about 5.8 points in favor of the 76ers and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others). The Magic will be without Jonathan Isaac or Jalen Suggs (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Magic need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge 76ers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHI +0.7 / ORL -2.3 per game

+3.0

Home-court advantage76ers at home

+2.3

InjuriesPHI: 4 out, 1 questionable · ORL: 5 out, 0 questionable

+0.5

Expected marginfor 76ers

+5.8

Scenarios

76ers win by 10+

37%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Magic win by 10+

10%

Stat comparison Current season

ORLPHI

113.6

Points scored / game

114.4

116.2

Points allowed / game

113.5

44.2 %

Field goal %

42.8 %

31.4 %

3-point %

32.6 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

35.0

75.0 %

Free throw %

77.5 %

41.3

Rebounds / game

42.2

26.0

Assists / game

24.6

7.8

Steals / game

9.8

4.5

Blocks / game

5.6

17.8

Turnovers / game

12.6

Players to watch

Magic

Franz WagnerF · #2219.5pts / game

Franz WagnerF · #226.0assists

Wendell Carter Jr.C · #349.0rebounds

76ers

Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game

LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists

Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

ORL

136-115L

132-125L

115-93W

111-102L

129-99

PHI

106-100W

114-106W

127-116L

106-93W

114-109

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

ORL 32% · PHI 68%

ESPN BPI

ORL 31% · PHI 70%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ORL		PHI
1-3	Record	4-1
113.6	Points scored / game	114.4
116.2	Points allowed / game	113.5
-2.3	Adjusted margin / game	+0.7
L1	Current streak	W1
1-3	Last 10 games	4-1
1-1 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
45-37 (+0.6)	Last season	45-37 (-0.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Magic

Jonathan Isaac FOut

Jalen Suggs GOut

Paolo Banchero FOut

Noah Penda FOut

Izaiyah Nelson FOut

Injury report 76ers

Jabari Walker FOut

Tacko Fall COut

Dominick Barlow FOut

Ariel Hukporti COut

Jaylen Brown GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.