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Hawks vs Trail Blazers prediction NBA · Saturday, December 12

Sat, Dec 12 · 10:00 PM ETModa Center · KUNP 16, BlazerVision

Atlanta Hawks

2-3 · away

Projected score

115-117

Portland Trail Blazers

3-0 · home

43% win ATLwin POR 57%

FavoritePOR

Projected margin2.2

Projected total232

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Portland Trail Blazers (3-0) host the Atlanta Hawks (2-3) on Saturday, December 12 at 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Trail Blazers a 57% chance to win and projects a 115-117 score (Hawks – Trail Blazers), about 232 total points. This season, the Trail Blazers are 1-0 at home and the Hawks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-0 for the Trail Blazers and 2-3 for the Hawks (current streaks: Trail Blazers W3, Hawks L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks), Henri Veesaar (Hawks), Chris Youngblood (Trail Blazers) and Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Trail Blazers 117 – 115 Hawks, a margin of about 2.2 points in favor of the Trail Blazers and a total around 232 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Trail Blazers will be without Chris Youngblood or Shaedon Sharpe. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Hawks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Trail Blazers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)POR +3.0 / ATL +2.7 per game

+0.3

Home-court advantageTrail Blazers at home

+2.3

InjuriesPOR: 2 out, 1 questionable · ATL: 2 out, 0 questionable

-0.3

Expected marginfor Trail Blazers

+2.2

Scenarios

Trail Blazers win by 10+

27%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Hawks win by 10+

16%

Stat comparison Current season

ATLPOR

119.0

Points scored / game

118.2

115.8

Points allowed / game

114.7

46.9 %

Field goal %

51.1 %

34.8 %

3-point %

38.9 %

41.4

3-pointers attempted / game

43.7

72.8 %

Free throw %

70.8 %

41.4

Rebounds / game

46.3

32.2

Assists / game

30.7

10.2

Steals / game

8.3

3.6

Blocks / game

2.7

14.0

Turnovers / game

13.3

Players to watch

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Trail Blazers

Deni AvdijaF · #822.3pts / game

Ja MorantG · #16.3assists

Donovan ClinganC · #239.3rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

ATL

132-125W

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117

POR

110-98L

128-118W

124-83W

128-120W

136-129

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

ATL 43% · POR 57%

ESPN BPI

ATL 43% · POR 57%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ATL		POR
2-3	Record	3-0
119.0	Points scored / game	118.2
115.8	Points allowed / game	114.7
+2.7	Adjusted margin / game	+3.0
L3	Current streak	W3
2-3	Last 10 games	3-0
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
46-36 (+2.4)	Last season	42-40 (-0.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Injury report Trail Blazers

Chris Youngblood GOut

Shaedon Sharpe GOut

Robert Williams III CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.