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Nets vs Thunder prediction NBA · Wednesday, December 2

Wed, Dec 2 · 8:00 PM ETPaycom Center · KSBI, Thunder App, DAZN (YES)

Brooklyn Nets

0-4 · away

Projected score

103-119

Oklahoma City Thunder

4-1 · home

11% win BKNwin OKC 89%

FavoriteOKC

Projected margin15.6

Projected total222

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) host the Brooklyn Nets (0-4) on Wednesday, December 2 at 8:00 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 89% chance to win and projects a 103-119 score (Nets – Thunder), about 222 total points. This season, the Thunder are 3-0 at home and the Nets are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Thunder and 0-4 for the Nets (current streaks: Thunder L1, Nets L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 15% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Egor Demin (Nets), Tyler Bilodeau (Nets), Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder) and Nikola Topic (Thunder)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Thunder start with a clear edge. The model projects Thunder 119 – 103 Nets, a margin of about 15.6 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 222 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). The Nets will be without Egor Demin or Tyler Bilodeau. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+7.6 vs -8.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Nets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Thunder's offense (115.8 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Thunder

Team strength (adjusted point differential)OKC +7.6 / BKN -8.4 per game

+16.0

Home-court advantageThunder at home

+2.3

InjuriesOKC: 5 out, 1 questionable · BKN: 2 out, 0 questionable

-2.7

Expected marginfor Thunder

+15.6

Scenarios

Thunder win by 10+

67%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

15%

Nets win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

BKNOKC

108.0

Points scored / game

115.8

117.9

Points allowed / game

106.9

42.9 %

Field goal %

44.0 %

36.7 %

3-point %

30.9 %

42.3

3-pointers attempted / game

32.4

76.6 %

Free throw %

86.4 %

43.5

Rebounds / game

46.0

24.0

Assists / game

22.0

10.0

Steals / game

8.4

4.0

Blocks / game

6.8

17.5

Turnovers / game

13.6

Players to watch

Nets

Michael Porter Jr.F · #1722.8pts / game

Julius RandleF · #305.8assists

Julius RandleF · #307.5rebounds

Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game

Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists

Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

BKN

L144-128L110-103L125-121L136-109L125-124 OT

OKC

116-104W

96-84W

108-101W

125-114L

120-96

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

BKN 11% · OKC 89%

ESPN BPI

BKN 11% · OKC 89%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

BKN		OKC
0-4	Record	4-1
108.0	Points scored / game	115.8
117.9	Points allowed / game	106.9
-8.4	Adjusted margin / game	+7.6
L4	Current streak	L1
0-4	Last 10 games	4-1
0-2 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
20-62 (-10.0)	Last season	64-18 (+11.1)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Nets

Egor Demin GOut

Tyler Bilodeau FOut

Injury report Thunder

Jalen Williams GOut

Alex Caruso GOut

Thomas Sorber COut

Nikola Topic GOut

Cason Wallace GOut

Chet Holmgren CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.