Thunder vs Nets prediction NBA · Monday, November 30
At a glance
The Brooklyn Nets (0-4) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) on Monday, November 30 at 7:30 PM ET at Barclays Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 81% chance to win and projects a 116-105 score (Thunder – Nets), about 222 total points. This season, the Nets are 0-2 at home and the Thunder are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Nets and 4-1 for the Thunder (current streaks: Nets L4, Thunder L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 21% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder), Nikola Topic (Thunder), Cason Wallace (Thunder) and Egor Demin (Nets)…. Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Thunder dominate this matchup. The model projects Nets 105 – 116 Thunder, a margin of about 11.0 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 222 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nets will be without Egor Demin or Tyler Bilodeau. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-8.4 vs +7.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Nets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's offense (115.8 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
OKCBKN
Players to watch
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6reboundsNets
Michael Porter Jr.F · #1722.8pts / game
Julius RandleF · #305.8assistsJulius RandleF · #307.5reboundsRecent form
OKC
116-104W
96-84W
108-101W
125-114L
120-96BKN
144-128L
110-103L
125-121L
136-109L
125-124 OT
OKC
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| OKC | BKN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 0-4 |
| 115.8 | Points scored / game | 108.0 |
| 106.9 | Points allowed / game | 117.9 |
| +7.6 | Adjusted margin / game | -8.4 |
| L1 | Current streak | L4 |
| 4-1 | Last 10 games | 0-4 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 0-2 home |
| 64-18 (+11.1) | Last season | 20-62 (-10.0) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Thunder
Injury report Nets
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.