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Celtics vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Monday, November 30

Mon, Nov 30 · 8:00 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center · KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Boston Celtics

3-1 · away

Projected score

117-108

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · home

75% win BOSwin DAL 25%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin8.6

Projected total224

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Dallas Mavericks (3-2) host the Boston Celtics (3-1) on Monday, November 30 at 8:00 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 75% chance to win and projects a 117-108 score (Celtics – Mavericks), about 224 total points. This season, the Mavericks are 1-1 at home and the Celtics are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Mavericks and 3-1 for the Celtics (current streaks: Mavericks W2, Celtics W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 25% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Celtics played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Devin Carter (Celtics), Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks) and Dereck Lively II (Mavericks). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Celtics dominate this matchup. The model projects Mavericks 108 – 117 Celtics, a margin of about 8.6 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Celtics played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others). The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-2.8 vs +6.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Mavericks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DAL -2.8 / BOS +6.6 per game

-9.4

Home-court advantageMavericks at home

+2.3

Back-to-backCeltics played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesDAL: 4 out, 1 questionable · BOS: 1 out, 0 questionable

-3.1

Expected marginfor Mavericks

-8.6

Scenarios

Mavericks win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

25%

Celtics win by 10+

45%

Stat comparison Current season

BOSDAL

116.1

Points scored / game

114.1

108.3

Points allowed / game

117.4

46.5 %

Field goal %

49.0 %

38.6 %

3-point %

34.6 %

41.5

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

76.0 %

Free throw %

76.7 %

44.3

Rebounds / game

44.2

27.8

Assists / game

27.6

9.0

Steals / game

9.0

3.8

Blocks / game

7.4

15.5

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

BOS 75% · DAL 25%

ESPN BPI

BOS 60% · DAL 40%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

BOS		DAL
3-1	Record	3-2
116.1	Points scored / game	114.1
108.3	Points allowed / game	117.4
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	-2.8
W3	Current streak	W2
3-1	Last 10 games	3-2
0-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
56-26 (+7.7)	Last season	26-56 (-5.5)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.