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Mavericks vs Celtics prediction NBA · Sunday, November 15

Sun, Nov 15 · 6:00 PM ETTD Garden · KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · away

Projected score

104-120

Boston Celtics

3-1 · home

10% win DALwin BOS 90%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin16.4

Projected total224

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Boston Celtics (3-1) host the Dallas Mavericks (3-2) on Sunday, November 15 at 6:00 PM ET at TD Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 90% chance to win and projects a 104-120 score (Mavericks – Celtics), about 224 total points. This season, the Celtics are 3-0 at home and the Mavericks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Celtics and 3-2 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Celtics W3, Mavericks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 14% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Mavericks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks), Dereck Lively II (Mavericks) and Devin Carter (Celtics). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Celtics dominate this matchup. The model projects Celtics 120 – 104 Mavericks, a margin of about 16.4 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+6.6 vs -2.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Celtics

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BOS +6.6 / DAL -2.8 per game

+9.4

Home-court advantageCeltics at home

+2.3

Back-to-backMavericks played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesBOS: 1 out, 0 questionable · DAL: 4 out, 1 questionable

+3.1

Expected marginfor Celtics

+16.4

Scenarios

Celtics win by 10+

69%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

14%

Mavericks win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

DALBOS

114.1

Points scored / game

116.1

117.4

Points allowed / game

108.3

49.0 %

Field goal %

46.5 %

34.6 %

3-point %

38.6 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

41.5

76.7 %

Free throw %

76.0 %

44.2

Rebounds / game

44.3

27.6

Assists / game

27.8

9.0

Steals / game

9.0

7.4

Blocks / game

3.8

15.6

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DAL 10% · BOS 90%

ESPN BPI

DAL 24% · BOS 76%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DAL		BOS
3-2	Record	3-1
114.1	Points scored / game	116.1
117.4	Points allowed / game	108.3
-2.8	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
W2	Current streak	W3
3-2	Last 10 games	3-1
2-1 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
26-56 (-5.5)	Last season	56-26 (+7.7)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.