Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Nuggets vs Raptors prediction NBA · Sunday, November 29

Sun, Nov 29 · 6:00 PM ETScotiabank Arena

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · away

Projected score

111-117

Toronto Raptors

3-1 · home

30% win DENwin TOR 70%

FavoriteTOR

Projected margin6.5

Projected total228

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Toronto Raptors (3-1) host the Denver Nuggets (2-2) on Sunday, November 29 at 6:00 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 70% chance to win and projects a 111-117 score (Nuggets – Raptors), about 228 total points. This season, the Raptors are 2-0 at home and the Nuggets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Raptors and 2-2 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Raptors W1, Nuggets W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Julian Strawther (Nuggets), Kawhi Leonard (Raptors) and Nate Bittle (Raptors). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Raptors, but the Nuggets have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Raptors 117 – 111 Nuggets, a margin of about 6.5 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. The Nuggets will be without Alpha Diallo or Cameron Johnson (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Raptors

Team strength (adjusted point differential)TOR +5.0 / DEN +2.6 per game

+2.4

Home-court advantageRaptors at home

+2.3

InjuriesTOR: 2 out, 0 questionable · DEN: 4 out, 0 questionable

+1.8

Expected marginfor Raptors

+6.5

Scenarios

Raptors win by 10+

39%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

27%

Nuggets win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

DENTOR

119.2

Points scored / game

115.4

116.2

Points allowed / game

109.5

45.8 %

Field goal %

44.2 %

32.8 %

3-point %

30.4 %

34.3

3-pointers attempted / game

34.5

79.6 %

Free throw %

79.0 %

44.5

Rebounds / game

45.8

26.0

Assists / game

27.3

10.0

Steals / game

14.3

4.8

Blocks / game

5.5

15.3

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Raptors

RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game

Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists

Scottie BarnesF · #47.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

TOR

129-125W

135-92W

112-102L

117-94W

129-99

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DEN 30% · TOR 70%

ESPN BPI

DEN 40% · TOR 60%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DEN		TOR
2-2	Record	3-1
119.2	Points scored / game	115.4
116.2	Points allowed / game	109.5
+2.6	Adjusted margin / game	+5.0
W1	Current streak	W1
2-2	Last 10 games	3-1
1-1 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
54-28 (+5.2)	Last season	46-36 (+2.8)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Nuggets

Alpha Diallo FOut

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Injury report Raptors

Kawhi Leonard FOut

Nate Bittle COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.